Always look at the 10 year treasury

Didier Malagies • September 29, 2025



Great question — the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note (T-Note) is one of the most important benchmarks in finance, and it’s tightly linked to interest rates. Here’s a breakdown of how it works and why it matters:


1. What the 10-Year Treasury Is


It’s a bond issued by the U.S. government with a maturity of 10 years.


Investors buy it, loaning money to the government in exchange for:


Semiannual coupon payments (interest), and


The face value back at maturity.


Because it’s backed by the U.S. government, it’s considered one of the safest investments in the world.


2. Yield vs. Price


The yield is the effective return investors earn on the bond.


The yield moves inversely with the bond’s price:


If demand is high and price goes up → yield goes down.


If demand falls and price goes down → yield goes up.


3. Connection to Interest Rates


The 10-year Treasury yield reflects investor expectations about:


Future Federal Reserve policy (Fed funds rate).


Inflation (higher inflation expectations push yields higher).


Economic growth (slower growth often pushes yields lower).


While the Fed directly controls only the short-term Fed funds rate, the 10-year yield is market-driven and often moves in anticipation of where the Fed will go.


4. Why It’s So Important


Mortgage rates & lending costs: 30-year mortgage rates generally move in step with the 10-year yield (plus a spread). If the 10-year goes up, mortgage rates usually rise.


Benchmark for global finance: Companies, governments, and banks often price loans and bonds based on the 10-year yield.


Risk sentiment: Investors flock to Treasuries in times of uncertainty, driving yields down (“flight to safety”).


5. Practical Example


Suppose the Fed raises short-term rates to fight inflation.


Investors expect tighter policy and possibly lower inflation later.


If they believe inflation will fall, demand for 10-years might rise → yields drop.


But if they fear inflation will stay high, demand falls → yields rise.


Mortgage rates, business loans, and even stock valuations all adjust accordingly.


✅ In short:

The 10-year Treasury is the bridge between Fed policy and real-world borrowing costs. It signals market expectations for growth, inflation, and Fed moves, making it a crucial guide for interest rates across the economy.



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