Are these the lowest mortgage rates we’ll see in 2024?

Didier Malagies • September 24, 2024


Have we seen the bottom in mortgage rates for 2024 after a crazy roller coaster ride so far this year? My 2024 forecast had a mortgage rate range of 7.25%-5.75%. To get to the lower end of this range, we needed to see two things: the labor market getting softer and the mortgage spreads improving. This is the double-whammy impact, and that’s what has happened.


However, it’s still September, and we have three months to go! Can my lowest range forecast be wrong?

Yes, here’s how and why.

10-year yield and mortgage rates


My 2024 forecast included:

  • A range for mortgage rates between 7.25%-5.75%
  • A range for the 10-year yield between 4.25%-3.21%

How rates get to the lower-end range of the forecast is critical. There are two variables: the labor data getting softer is the prime one and the second one is the spreads getting better. Again, the double whammy of lower yields and spreads. This is not about more Fed rate cuts, because the market has priced in a lot Fed rate cuts already, but they haven’t priced in a recession yet. People wonder why rates went up after the bigger than expected Fed rate cut, as shown in the chart below. I talked about this in this HousingWire Daily podcast.


With the 10-year yield at 3.74% as of Friday, we have some room left to reach the very bottom of the 2024 forecast before the year is out. However, this will need the labor and economic data to get much weaker. That’s the first variable — the second one is the spreads.


Mortgage spreads

The mortgage spread story has been positive in 2024, whereas it was negative in 2023. We have seen a big move, which has helped, and we still have some runway left to return to historical norms. This can help get mortgage rates down toward 5.75%. If we took the worst spreads from 2023 and incorporated those today, mortgage rates would be 0.68% higher. At the same time, we are far from average with the spreads, as we are still 0.85% higher today than the low levels of 2022 in the chart below. 


Purchase application data

Purchase applications had another positive week, making the winning streak four weeks in a row — the longest of the year. Last week, purchase apps grew 5% weekly and fell 0.4% year over year. The slight decline year over year is the smallest decline since 2022. However, remember that last year at this time, mortgage rates were heading toward 8%, so the year-over-year comps will be easy to beat. That said, we have had a material change in data in the last 15 weeks.

This is what weekly purchase application data looked like with rising rates starting from the latter part of January:

  • 14 negative prints
  • 2 flat prints
  • 2 positive prints
  • 

As you can see, this was shaping up to be a highly negative year with the weekly application data. Before late January when rates started to rise, we had about eight weeks of positive trending purchase apps, and then the rising rates zapped the data in a very negative curve.



Have A Question?

Use the form below and we will give your our expert answers!

Reverse Mortgage Ask A Question

Start Your Loan with DDA today
Your local Mortgage Broker

Mortgage Broker Largo
See our Reviews

Looking for more details? Listen to our extended podcast! 

Check out our other helpful videos to learn more about credit and residential mortgages.

What happens when the Feds drop the rates

By Didier Malagies • July 14, 2025
📉 1. Borrowing Becomes Cheaper Mortgage rates tend to fall, making it easier for people to buy homes or refinance. Car loans, personal loans, and credit cards may also have lower interest rates. Businesses can borrow more cheaply to invest in growth. 💸 2. Consumer Spending Increases Since borrowing is cheaper and savings earn less interest, people are more likely to spend money rather than save it. This can boost demand for goods and services, helping to stimulate economic activity. 🏦 3. Savings Yield Less Savings accounts, CDs, and bonds typically offer lower returns. This can push investors to move money into riskier assets like stocks or real estate in search of higher returns. 📈 4. Stock Market Often Rallies Lower rates can mean higher corporate profits (due to cheaper debt) and increased consumer spending. Investors may shift funds from bonds into stocks, driving up equity prices. 💵 5. The U.S. Dollar May Weaken Lower interest rates can make the dollar less attractive to foreign investors, potentially weakening the currency. This can help U.S. exporters (as their goods become cheaper abroad) but may also increase the cost of imports. 🧩 6. Inflation Could Rise More spending and borrowing can increase demand, which may push prices up, leading to higher inflation—especially if supply can’t keep up. 🏚️ 7. Real Estate Activity Tends to Pick Up Lower mortgage rates can boost homebuying, refinancing, and construction, which helps stimulate related industries. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329 

Why mortgage purchase apps are on a 22-week growth streak

By Didier Malagies • July 8, 2025
Mortgage purchase applications are on a 22-week growth streak primarily due to a combination of improving market conditions, seasonal trends, and changing consumer behavior. Here's a breakdown of the key reasons behind the sustained growth: 🔑 1. Falling Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates have been gradually declining from the highs seen in 2023. Even small drops in interest rates significantly improve affordability, prompting more buyers to apply for loans. Borrowers are locking in rates with the hope that they’ve hit a local low. 🏡 2. Pent-Up Demand from 2023 Many potential buyers delayed purchases during 2023 due to high rates and limited inventory. As conditions improve, backlogged demand is being released into the market. 🌞 3. Spring & Summer Buying Season The U.S. housing market typically sees a seasonal increase in purchase activity starting in spring and continuing through summer. Families prefer to move during school breaks, contributing to more applications in this window. 💼 4. Improved Inventory Levels While still tight, housing inventory has started to improve slightly in some regions. Builders are offering incentives and new constructions are increasing, drawing more buyers into the market. 📈 5. Confidence in the Economy A strong labor market and steady wage growth are boosting consumer confidence , encouraging people to buy homes. Some buyers are moving before potential rate hikes or home price increases . 💡 6. Shift Toward Homeownership Rising rents and lifestyle changes post-pandemic are pushing many toward owning rather than renting . First-time homebuyers are a large portion of this demand. Summary:  The 22-week growth streak in mortgage purchase applications is being driven by lower mortgage rates, seasonal buying trends, improved inventory, and returning buyer confidence . While challenges like affordability and supply remain, these positive signals suggest a slow but steady rebound in the housing market .

What about all the disclosures I get during the loan process

By Didier Malagies • July 7, 2025
During the mortgage process, several disclosure documents are provided to help you understand the terms of the loan, your rights, and the costs involved. These disclosures are required by law and are designed to promote transparency and protect you as a borrower. Here’s a breakdown of the key disclosures you'll receive: 1. Loan Estimate (LE) When: Within 3 business days of submitting a loan application. Purpose: Provides a summary of the loan terms, estimated interest rate, monthly payment, closing costs, and other fees. Key sections: Loan terms (rate, type, prepayment penalty, balloon payment) Projected payments (principal, interest, taxes, insurance) Costs at closing (origination charges, services you can/cannot shop for) Why it matters: Lets you compare offers from multiple lenders. 2. Closing Disclosure (CD) When: At least 3 business days before closing. Purpose: Provides final details of the mortgage loan, including actual costs. Key sections: Final loan terms (rate, payments, closing costs) Cash to close (how much you need to bring to closing) A detailed breakdown of costs and payments over time Why it matters: Helps you confirm everything is accurate before you close. 3. Mortgage Servicing Disclosure Statement When: Within 3 business days of application. Purpose: Explains whether your loan might be sold or transferred to another company for servicing. Why it matters: Tells you who will manage your payments and account. 4. Affiliated Business Arrangement (AfBA) Disclosure When: At the time of referral to an affiliated business (e.g., title company). Purpose: Discloses any relationships between the lender and other service providers and explains you’re not required to use them. Why it matters: Ensures you know if there’s a potential conflict of interest. 5. Home Loan Toolkit (for purchase loans) When: Within 3 business days of application. Purpose: A consumer-friendly booklet from the CFPB that explains the mortgage process, costs, and how to shop for a loan. Why it matters: Helps first-time buyers understand the steps and choices. 6. Right to Receive a Copy of Appraisal When: Within 3 business days of application. Purpose: Notifies you that you can get a copy of the appraisal at no additional cost. Why it matters: Gives you insight into the value of the home you’re buying or refinancing. 7. Initial Escrow Disclosure When: At or within 45 days of closing. Purpose: Details amounts to be collected in escrow for taxes and insurance. Why it matters: Shows how your monthly mortgage payment is allocated. 8. Notice of Right to Rescind (for refinances only) When: At closing (for primary residence refinances). Purpose: Gives you 3 business days to cancel the refinance loan. Why it matters: Protects you from making a rushed decision. tune in and learn at https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog Didier Malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
Show More