As Social Security turns 90, what will its future hold?

Didier Malagies • August 18, 2025


Here’s a clearer breakdown of what lies ahead for Social Security as it turns 90:

1. Trust Fund Depletion: A Real and Growing Threat

  • 2025 Trustees Report projects that the OASI (Old-Age & Survivors Insurance) Trust Fund will be depleted by 2033. At that time, beneficiaries would receive only about 77% of scheduled benefits.Social SecurityPeterson Foundation
  • The Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund is expected to remain solvent through at least 2099.Social SecurityPeterson Foundation
  • If OASI and DI were merged hypothetically, the combined OASDI reserves would be exhausted around 2034, with roughly 81% of benefits payable at that time.Social SecurityAARP
  • Other sources echo this timeline: some forecasts suggest insolvency might arrive as early as 2033 or 2034, with 20–26% cuts unless reforms are enacted.The Week+1TIME+1The SunKiplingerinvestopedia.com

2. Contributing Factors to the Crisis

  • Demographics: The worker-to-beneficiary ratio has plummeted—from 16.5 per retiree in 1950 to around 2.7 today—coping with an aging population and declining birth rates.The Suninvestopedia.comPeterson FoundationWikipedia
  • Policy Changes: Recent laws like the Social Security Fairness Act (2025) that restored withheld benefits for certain groups raised payouts without funding offsets, accelerating depletion.AARPinvestopedia.com
  • Reduced Agency Resources: The SSA saw significant staffing reductions—estimates suggest about 20% of field staff were let go—compromising service delivery.investopedia.comHousingWire

3. What Happens After Depletion?

  • Benefits won't vanish—but if no corrective action is taken, they would be automatically reduced to the level sustainable by ongoing payroll tax revenue—approximately 77–81% of the current scheduled amounts.investopedia.comTIMEAARPPeterson Foundation
  • That represents a 19–23% cut in benefits. For instance, a retiree currently receiving $2,000/month would see payments drop to around $1,545–$1,600/month.investopedia.comTIMEThe Week

4. Solutions & Proposals to Preserve the Program

Here are some of the leading ideas under consideration:

a. Raising Revenue

b. Reducing or Restructuring Benefits

  • Reduce Benefits for New Recipients
    A modest 5% cut starting in 2025 could extend solvency only a few more years.
    AARP
  • Means-Testing or Adjust COLA
    Lowering cost-of-living adjustments (COLA) or reducing benefits for wealthier retirees could help but are unpopular.
    AARP
  • Raise Retirement Age Gradually
    Incremental increases to the full retirement age could yield sizable savings.
    AARP

c. Structural Reforms & Investment Strategies

  • Bipartisan Investment Fund (Cassidy–Kaine Plan)
    This proposal would inject
    $1.5 trillion into a separate fund that invests in stocks and bonds, aiming to generate growth over 75 years and preserve all benefits without resorting to general government borrowing.The Washington Postinvestopedia.com
  • Brookings Blueprint
    Advocates a system that maintains core principles, ensures universal participation, and restores long-term solvency without expanding general fund use.
    Brookings

5. The Road Ahead: What’s Likely to Happen?

Inaction isn’t an option—delaying reform would escalate the scale of necessary changes.Peterson FoundationThe WeekKiplinger Politically, topics like benefit cuts, tax hikes, and raising the retirement age remain extremely sensitive. Successful reform will likely involve a mix of revenue increases, eligibility tweaks, and investment innovations, crafted in a way that spreads burden fairly and maintains public support.

Some bipartisan pathways—like the Cassidy–Kaine plan—offer creative long-term strategies, but most require immediate bridging solutions (e.g., modest tax increases or cost adjustments) to prevent cuts in the next decade.


Didier Malagies nmls212566

DDA Mortgage nmls324329





Have A Question?

Use the form below and we will give your our expert answers!

Reverse Mortgage Ask A Question


Start Your Loan with DDA today
Your local Mortgage Broker

Mortgage Broker Largo
See our Reviews

Looking for more details? Listen to our extended podcast! 

Check out our other helpful videos to learn more about credit and residential mortgages.

By Didier Malagies November 18, 2025
This is a subtitle for your new post
By Didier Malagies November 17, 2025
This is a subtitle for your new post
By Didier Malagies November 17, 2025
What Does “No Credit Score Mortgage” Mean (for FNMA) Policy Change As of November 15, 2025, Fannie Mae’s automated underwriting system (Desktop Underwriter, or DU) will no longer require a minimum third-party credit score. Fannie Mae Instead of relying on a fixed cutoff (like “you must have a 620 FICO”), DU will use Fannie Mae’s proprietary risk-assessment model to evaluate credit risk. Fannie Mae That model considers more than just credit score: payment history, “trended” credit data, nontraditional credit sources like rent, utilities, and so on. Fannie Mae Nontraditional Credit Allowed Fannie Mae’s Selling Guide includes rules for “nontraditional credit” — that is, credit history documented without a standard credit score. Selling Guide When a borrower truly has no credit score, lenders must document nontraditional credit history. For example, they might look at 12 months of cash flow or payment history (rent, utilities, insurance, etc.). Fannie requires borrowers without any credit score to complete homeownership education before closing. Selling Guide Why This Could Be a Good Thing Greater Access to Homeownership This change will likely help people who are “credit invisible” (i.e., they don’t have a traditional credit score) get conventional mortgages. Historically underserved groups (such as those who rent, use nontraditional credit, or have limited credit history) could benefit. More Holistic Underwriting By removing the rigid score minimum, DU can look at the whole financial picture. This means more weight on things like debt-to-income ratio, reserves, employment, and nontraditional credit. Using more data (rent history, payment trends) can be more predictive of whether someone will make mortgage payments than just a credit score. Potential Cost Benefits for Some Borrowers If done right, borrowers with limited credit but solid finances could qualify for a conventional loan (which may have more favorable terms than some other high-risk or subprime options). It may reduce the need for more expensive or risky loan products for people who don’t fit the “traditional” credit profile. Risks and Downsides Higher Risk for Lenders → Possibly Higher Cost Without a credit score floor, lenders are taking on more uncertainty. They may require larger down payments, lower loan-to-value ratios (LTVs), or more reserves to compensate. If the borrower is truly “credit invisible,” the lender’s verification burden is higher (to safely assess risk), which could make underwriting more stringent in non-score cases. Potential for Higher Interest Rates / Pricing Risks Even if a borrower qualifies, the interest rate may be higher compared to someone with a very good credit score, because the risk model may not “discount” as heavily without a high score. There could be loan-level price adjustments (or other risk-based pricing) tied to the riskiness of nontraditional credit profiles. Performance Uncertainty This is a newer underwriting paradigm for Fannie Mae, so long-term performance is less “battle-tested” at scale for certain nontraditional credit borrowers. If default rates go up for these loans, it could have negative implications for lenders or investors (or for how such loans are underwritten in the future). Lender Overlays Just because Fannie Mae has this policy doesn’t mean all lenders will be aggressive in offering no-score loans. Some may add their own stricter requirements (“overlays”) that make it harder than it sounds. You’ll need a lender that is comfortable underwriting nontraditional credit and willing to do the extra documentation. Is It a Good Thing For You Personally? It depends on your situation: Yes, it could be great if: You don’t have a traditional credit score but have a solid financial picture (stable income, low debt, documented payment history for rent/utilities). You want access to a mainstream, conventional mortgage. You have enough reserves/down payment to satisfy lender’s risk assessment. Be cautious if: Your income or cash flow is marginal, because the lender may not be comfortable with “no score + limited reserves.” You don’t have much documentation of nontraditional credit (you’ll need to show 12 months or more of payment history). You’re not working with a lender that understands or is experienced with Fannie Mae’s nontraditional credit program. My Verdict Overall, yes — this is a positive shift by Fannie Mae toward more inclusive, flexible underwriting. It’s likely to help more people who’ve been shut out of conventional mortgages. But it’s not “free risk”: borrowers still need to show financial responsibility, and lenders will underwrite carefully. If you are considering this type of mortgage (or someone offered it to you), I strongly recommend: Talking to a lender experienced with Fannie Mae’s nontraditional credit program. Didier Malagies nmls212566 DDA Mortgage nmls324329 .
Show More