Cooler inflation data sends mortgage rates lower

DDA Mortgage • December 14, 2022


On Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in cooler than expected, and the bond market loved it, driving mortgage rates lower. Where do we go from here? Headline inflation is still very elevated historically, but the trend can be our friend over the next 12 months.


I say this because the most significant component of Core CPI is shelter inflation. The growth rate for rent is already cooling down in real-time data, but the shelter inflation data line of the CPI lags behind the current market reality. This means that what is happening in the present world isn’t showing up in the CPI, which is a big deal since 42.4% of this index is shelter inflation.

As I am writing this, the bond market’s reaction looks like this: the 10-year yield went lower in yields right after the report and is currently trading at 3.48%; this means mortgage rates are going lower today. As the growth rate of inflation fades more and more, the fear of 8%-10% mortgage rates, which was the fantasy of every American bear, is slowly slipping from their fingers because those mortgage rates would be very problematic for the housing market and the economy. The housing market already went into recession in June of this year, and the second year of every recession is the 
excruciating part.


Also, the U.S. dollar is heading lower, which is a must because the dollar was getting too intense and creating a lot of havoc worldwide. Traditionally, when the dollar gets too strong, it can cause drama in the financial markets, as it did earlier in the year. The recent cooldown is necessary to create a more stable global market while everyone works on slowing inflation down. 


Remember, it wasn’t long ago that the international institutions called for the Federal Reserve to stop its mortgage rate hikes as the dollar created a lot of damage in the markets.

We have had back-to-back reports of more excellent than anticipated inflation data. This is a start, and as I have said over the last few months, we will be in a much different spot 12 months from now.

The CPI report


From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.1 percent before seasonal adjustment. — The all items index increased 7.1 percent for the 12 months ending November; this was the smallest 12- month increase since the period ending December 2021. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.0 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 13.1 percent for the 12 months ending November, and the food index increased 10.6 percent over the last year; all of these increases were smaller than for the period ending October

As you can see below, the month-to-month data is cooling down, and in all honesty, the headline core CPI data is being artificially held up by a lagging indicator. So, the bond market understands this — it has always understood this — which is why the 10-year yield never got to 
8%-10% like some people thought it should.


In the Mad Max basket, as I call the energy index, the growth rate is cooling down as oil prices and gas prices have fallen. In March we had the new variable of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Russia has used energy as the commodity war of choice against the west, so we aren’t out of the woods on this one as long as that variable is in play. However, for now, oil prices have fallen from their recent peak.

I am glad I bought my new car in October of 2020; car inflation has gone gangbusters, and a lot of this was due to the global pandemic. Auto production slowed immediately during the pandemic, and getting chips and parts to build a car took much longer than normal. However, the inflationary growth rate of the new vehicles portion of the CPI data is falling and has room to go lower.

Food inflation has gone bonkers post COVID-19. Has anyone seen egg prices recently? The growth rate has cooled off a tad. Food inflation is part of headline inflation, not core inflation, and has had historical wild moves. Still, the recent food inflation we have seen has been historically high for the United States.


As you can see, the year-over-year growth rate in inflationary data has peaked for the year. Since we are almost going into 2023, that isn’t saying much.

The next 12 months and mortgage rates


The following 12 months is what matters, and the best way to fight inflation is always adding more and more supply. If you’re trying to destroy inflation by killing demand by putting Americans into a job-loss recession — that isn’t the best long-term solution, you’re too late on the supply store.


Eventually, you need supply to come back online because people can’t stay unemployed forever. Core CPI inflation is boosted by a data line that is nowhere close to reality. Shelter inflation is not only cooling off; it will compete with the 1 million rental units coming online next year. 

As you can see, I am looking out to the future with this because 12 months ago, we didn’t have many mortgage rate hikes in the system, and the growth rate of inflation wasn’t cooling off. Now, it’s a much different story. 


We don’t need to create a job-loss recession to bring down inflation; we need more supply. In some parts of the economy, it takes too long to get that supply on, and some are much quicker. 



However, with the mortgage rate hikes in place and knowing that the primary data line is lagging, we can hopefully assume that the Federal Reserve, which is a single-mandate Federal Reserve now and all about price stability, will move to a dual-mandate Federal Reserve. The dual mandate Fed is all about price stability and jobs. We need more time to get supply up, and we don’t need to overdo with rate hikes at this stage of the economic cycle.


We are still far from the Fed’s 2% inflationary target, but we don’t need to destroy the economy to get there. Since all six of my recession red flags are up, and I hope the growth rate cools down, mortgage rates can fall, which will stabilize the housing market, which in turn means the U.S. could avoid a recession near term.



Have A Question?

Use the form below and we will give your our expert answers!

Reverse Mortgage Ask A Question


Start Your Loan with DDA today
Your local Mortgage Broker

Mortgage Broker Largo
See our Reviews

Looking for more details? Listen to our extended podcast! 

Check out our other helpful videos to learn more about credit and residential mortgages.

By Didier Malagies July 28, 2025
When the 10-year Treasury yield goes down, it generally signals lower interest rates and increased demand for safe-haven assets like U.S. government bonds. Here’s what typically happens across different areas of the economy and markets: 🔻 Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Drops Increased demand for bonds: Investors buy Treasuries during uncertain times (e.g., recession fears, geopolitical risk), which drives prices up and yields down. Expectations of lower inflation or interest rates: If the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates or inflation is cooling, yields tend to fall. Weak economic outlook: Slowing growth or a poor jobs report can trigger a yield decline. 📉 Impacts of a Lower 10-Year Treasury Yield 🏦 1. Mortgage Rates and Loans Mortgage rates (especially 30-year fixed) tend to follow the 10-year Treasury. As yields fall, mortgage rates usually decline, making home loans cheaper. This can stimulate the housing market and refinancing activity. 📈 2. Stock Market Lower yields often boost stock prices, especially growth stocks (like tech), because: Borrowing costs are lower. Future earnings are worth more when discounted at a lower rate. Defensive and interest-sensitive sectors (like utilities and real estate) also benefit. 💰 3. Consumer and Business Borrowing Lower Treasury yields can lead to lower interest rates across the board, including for: Auto loans Credit cards Business loans This can boost consumer spending and business investment. 💵 4. U.S. Dollar Falling yields can make U.S. assets less attractive to foreign investors. This can weaken the dollar, which may help U.S. exporters by making goods cheaper abroad. 🪙 5. Inflation Expectations If the yield is falling due to low inflation expectations, it may indicate deflationary pressure. However, if it's just due to safe-haven buying, it might not reflect inflation at all. ⚠️ Potential Risks A sharp drop in the 10-year yield can signal a recession or loss of confidence in the economy. A flattening or inverted yield curve (when short-term rates are higher than long-term) can be a recession warning. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
By Didier Malagies July 21, 2025
Resi/commercial Typical 2-3 units over a 1-unit ground-floor commercial space LTV’s up to 75% A mixed-use property is a type of real estate development that combines two or more different uses within a single building or development. The most common combination is residential and commercial — for example, apartments or condos above ground-floor retail or office space. 🔑 Key Characteristics of a Mixed-Use Property: Feature Description Use Types Typically includes residential, commercial, retail, office, and sometimes hospitality or industrial components. Zoning Must be zoned for mixed-use by the local municipality. Layout Different uses are separated vertically (e.g., retail on the bottom, housing on top) or horizontally (different sections of the development). Ownership Can be owned by an individual, company, REIT, or government entity; may be leased or sold as separate units. Financing Considered commercial real estate; underwriting depends on the income mix and proportions of use types. 🏢 Common Mixed-Use Examples: Urban Buildings: Apartments above restaurants or retail stores (like Starbucks or a dry cleaner). Suburban Developments: Townhome communities built around a retail plaza or office park. Live/Work Units: Ground-floor office or retail space with a residence above, often used by entrepreneurs. Transit-Oriented Developments: Mixed-use buildings near train stations or bus hubs. 📊 Benefits of Mixed-Use Properties: Diversified Income Streams (residential + commercial) Increased Foot Traffic for businesses Live-Work-Play Environment appeals to urban dwellers Higher Land Use Efficiency and potentially better returns Encouraged by city planning to reduce sprawl and support sustainability A mixed-use property is a type of real estate development that combines two or more different uses within a single building or development. The most common combination is residential and commercial — for example, apartments or condos above ground-floor retail or office space. 🔑 Key Characteristics of a Mixed-Use Property: Feature Description Use Types Typically includes residential, commercial, retail, office, and sometimes hospitality or industrial components. Zoning Must be zoned for mixed-use by the local municipality. Layout Different uses are separated vertically (e.g., retail on bottom, housing on top) or horizontally (different sections of the development). Ownership Can be owned by an individual, company, REIT, or government entity; may be leased or sold as separate units. Financing Considered commercial real estate; underwriting depends on the income mix and proportions of use types. 🏢 Common Mixed-Use Examples: Urban Buildings: Apartments above restaurants or retail stores (like Starbucks or a dry cleaner). Suburban Developments: Townhome communities built around a retail plaza or office park. Live/Work Units: Ground-floor office or retail space with a residence above, often used by entrepreneurs. Transit-Oriented Developments: Mixed-use buildings near train stations or bus hubs. 📊 Benefits of Mixed-Use Properties: Diversified Income Streams (residential + commercial) Increased Foot Traffic for businesses Live-Work-Play Environment appeals to urban dwellers Higher Land Use Efficiency and potentially better returns Encouraged by city planning to reduce sprawl and support sustainability and 🔑 Key Characteristics of 5–10 Unit Multifamily Properties: Feature Description Number of Units 5 to 10 self-contained rental units, each with a kitchen and bathroom. Zoning Generally zoned as multifamily residential or mixed-use, depending on the area. Financing Category Considered commercial real estate by most lenders (5+ units triggers commercial underwriting). Ownership Typically owned by small investors, partnerships, or LLCs. Management Can be owner-managed or managed by a third-party property manager. 4. Private or Bridge Loans Short-term, higher interest Used for rehabs, quick purchases, or properties that don’t qualify for traditional financing 📊 Why Investors Like 5–10 Unit Multifamily: Easier to manage than large apartment complexes More scalable than single-family rentals Still eligible for economies of scale (one roof, one lawn, multiple rents) Can often house hack (live in one unit, rent the others) Tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
By Didier Malagies July 14, 2025
📉 1. Borrowing Becomes Cheaper Mortgage rates tend to fall, making it easier for people to buy homes or refinance. Car loans, personal loans, and credit cards may also have lower interest rates. Businesses can borrow more cheaply to invest in growth. 💸 2. Consumer Spending Increases Since borrowing is cheaper and savings earn less interest, people are more likely to spend money rather than save it. This can boost demand for goods and services, helping to stimulate economic activity. 🏦 3. Savings Yield Less Savings accounts, CDs, and bonds typically offer lower returns. This can push investors to move money into riskier assets like stocks or real estate in search of higher returns. 📈 4. Stock Market Often Rallies Lower rates can mean higher corporate profits (due to cheaper debt) and increased consumer spending. Investors may shift funds from bonds into stocks, driving up equity prices. 💵 5. The U.S. Dollar May Weaken Lower interest rates can make the dollar less attractive to foreign investors, potentially weakening the currency. This can help U.S. exporters (as their goods become cheaper abroad) but may also increase the cost of imports. 🧩 6. Inflation Could Rise More spending and borrowing can increase demand, which may push prices up, leading to higher inflation—especially if supply can’t keep up. 🏚️ 7. Real Estate Activity Tends to Pick Up Lower mortgage rates can boost homebuying, refinancing, and construction, which helps stimulate related industries. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329 
Show More