Fannie Mae economists expect two rate cuts in 2024, moderating home prices in 2025

Didier Malagies • July 24, 2024


Home price growth in the second quarter was stronger than previously anticipated, but economists at Fannie Mae believe it will likely moderate soon, closing 2024 and 2025 at annualized rates of 6.1% and 3%, respectively.



Even with more listings of homes available for sale compared to a year ago, existing-home sales fell in June. Fannie Mae economists said that increased supply and affordability constrained demand should result in moderating prices. Home prices were up 3% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis in the second quarter.


Credit: Fannie Mae

The company’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group noted that many large metro areas in the Sun Belt now have inventory levels that match or even exceed for-sale inventories of 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has caused Fannie Mae to downwardly revise its forecasts for housing starts and new-home sales. But the ESR Group also revised its existing-home sales forecast upward.

Credit: Fannie Mae

Fannie Mae said Tuesday it expects the Consumer Price Index to end 2024 at 2.9% and for the Federal Reserve to cut benchmark interest rates in September and December.


“The housing market continues to wait for affordability to improve, even as the supply of new and existing homes for sale slowly rises,” Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, said in the report. “The slight decline in mortgage rates of late, following data pointing to gradually slowing economic growth, has not been enough to overcome the significant affordability constraints imposed on would-be homebuyers. As such, despite more homes being listed for sale, actual home sales have not picked up.”

Duncan noted that home price deceleration will vary by region and depend heavily on supply. Strong new construction levels in the Sun Belt will ease prices in these markets while inventory remains
tight in much of the Northeast and the Midwest, he said.


Credit Fannie Mae

“In aggregate, we expect these varied market conditions to lead to a slight decline in total new home sales nationally for the full-year 2024, but a slight increase in existing homes sales.”

Combined, the ESR Group expects total home sales to be 4.81 million in 2024, essentially unchanged from the prior month’s forecast.


Fannie now forecasts the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate to average 6.8% in 2024 and 6.4% in 2025. The company upgraded its expectation for 2024 purchase origination volumes by $14 billion from last month’s forecast, although it downgraded its expectation for refinance volume in 2024 by $26 billion relative to last month’s forecast of $346 billion.


Fannie also forecasts refi volumes to grow to $563 billion in 2025 as home prices continue to rise and mortgage rates fall.



Have A Question?

Use the form below and we will give your our expert answers!

Reverse Mortgage Ask A Question


Start Your Loan with DDA today
Your local Mortgage Broker

Mortgage Broker Largo
See our Reviews

Looking for more details? Listen to our extended podcast! 

Check out our other helpful videos to learn more about credit and residential mortgages.

By Didier Malagies January 5, 2026
💡 Option 1 — Cash-Out Refinance Meaning: Replace your current mortgage with a larger loan and take the difference in cash. Bankrate Often lower interest rate than a second mortgage because it replaces your first mortgage. Rocket Mortgage Can consolidate debt (e.g., high-interest credit cards) into one loan. Bankrate If you refinance to a lower rate, you can reduce monthly payments while getting cash. Sunflower Bank When it might make sense: ✔ You currently have a higher interest mortgage (e.g., 7%+) and could refinance into ~6% ✔ You want a single payment ✔ You’re using the cash for productive purposes (debt consolidation, home improvements) 🪪 Option 2 — Second Mortgage / Home Equity Loan (HELOC) Meaning: Take out a loan on top of your existing mortgage without replacing it. Better Mortgag Keeps your current mortgage rate and terms if they’re favorable. Better Mortgage You borrow only what you want — no resetting your main mortgage. Often easier/faster to access cash than a full refinance. 🔁 Option 3 — Reverse Mortgage Meaning: Available only if you are typically 62+ — you borrow against home equity and don’t make monthly principal/interest payments. Balance is due when you move or pass. FHA Can provide steady cash flow or a lump sum with no monthly mortgage payments. Useful in retirement when income is fixed. When it might make sense: ✔ You are retiree near retirement ✔ You want to boost retirement income without monthly payments ✔ You don’t plan to leave the home as a large inheritance 📊 Which Option Should You Consider (High-Level Guidance) ➡ If your goal is lower monthly payments + access to cash: → Cash-out refinance could be ideal if today’s rates are lower than your current mortgage. ➡ If you want cash but want to keep a great existing rate: → Second mortgage or HELOC may be better than resetting your core mortgage. ➡ If you are 62+ and need income without monthly payments: → Reverse mortgage might be worth exploring but only with deep planning (especially for heirs). 🧠 Bottom Line (2026 Real-World Thinking) ✔ Mortgage rates are lower than recent highs but not back to historic lows, meaning refinancing could still save money if your current rate is significantly higher than ~6%. Rocket Mortgage ✔ Cash-out refinance is often cheaper than a second mortgage because of lower interest, but you must be okay restarting your loan term. Rocket Mortgage ✔ Reverse mortgages are specialized tools — great for some retirees but not suited to everyone. FHA tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329 
By Didier Malagies December 26, 2025
When someone has lived in a home for many years, their property taxes are often artificially low because of long-standing exemptions and assessment caps (like Florida’s Save Our Homes). If you close in January of the following year, here’s what happens: What you get at closing Property taxes are paid in arrears At a January closing, the tax proration is based on the prior year’s tax bill That bill still reflects: The long-term owner’s capped assessment Their homestead exemption As the buyer, you effectively benefit from those lower taxes for that entire year Why the increase doesn’t hit right away The county does not immediately reassess at closing The new assessed value is set as of January 1 of the year after the sale The higher tax bill is issued the following year Timeline example January 2026 – You close on the home All of 2026 – Taxes are based on the prior owner’s low, capped value November 2026 – You receive the first tax bill, still using the old assessment January 2027 – Reassessment takes effect at the higher value November 2027 – You receive the higher tax bill Key takeaway You enjoy the lower taxes for the full year after closing The adjustment does not occur until the second year This is why January closings after a long-term owner can look very attractive up front—but the increase is delayed, not eliminated Why this matters Many buyers think the taxes shown at closing are permanent. In reality, they’re just on a one-year lag due to how property tax assessments work. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
By Didier Malagies December 17, 2025
Here’s what’s really happening and why consumers are confused: Why “low rates & no closing costs” isn’t true Rates aren’t actually low Headline ads often quote temporary buydowns, ARM teaser rates, or perfect-credit scenarios that very few borrowers qualify for. The real, fully indexed 30-year fixed rate is meaningfully higher once you look at actual pricing. “No closing costs” usually means one of three things Lender credits: The borrower pays through a higher interest rate. Seller concessions: Only possible if the seller agrees — not universal. Costs rolled into the loan: Still paid, just financed over time. Rate buydowns are being marketed as permanent 2-1 or 1-0 buydowns lower payments only for the first year or two. Many borrowers don’t realize their payment will increase later. AI-driven and online lenders amplify the issue Automated platforms advertise best-case pricing without explaining: LLPAs DTI adjustments Credit overlays Property type impacts What customers should be told instead (plain truth) There is always a trade-off between rate and costs. If closing costs are “covered,” the rate will be higher. If the rate is lower, the borrower is paying for it upfront. There is no free money — just different ways to pay. How professionals are reframing the conversation Showing side-by-side scenarios: Low rate / higher costs Higher rate / lender credit Focusing on total cost over time, not just the rate Explaining break-even points clearly Given your background in mortgages and rate behavior, this kind of misrepresentation usually shows up late in the process, when the borrower sees the LE and feels misled. If you want, I can help you: tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
Show More