Homeowners gain $8.2 trillion in housing wealth over 10 years Nearly 980,000 middle-income households became homeowners from 2010-2020

Didier Malagies • March 15, 2022



From 2010 to 2020, middle-income households gained $2.1 trillion in housing wealth, according to a new study by the National Association of Realtors, released on Wednesday.


NAR’s Housing Wealth Gains for the Rising Middle-Class Markets study examined the distribution of housing wealth between 2010 and 2020 across income groups in 917 metropolitan and micropolitan areas.

The vast majority (71%) of the $8.2 trillion in housing wealth generated during this time period belonged to high-income households, while $296 billion, or 4%, was from low-income households.


During this 10-year period, nearly 980,000 middle-income households became homeowners and 529 of the 917 metro and micropolitan areas examined gained middle-income homeowners. NAR defined a middle-class homeowner as one earning an income of over 80% to 200% of the area median income.


The top 10 areas showing the largest increase in middle-class owner-occupied housing units in 2020 compared to 2010 were Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale (103,690), Austin-Round Rock (61,323), Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin (55,252), Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (53,421), Houston-The Woodlands-Sugarland (52,716), Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell (48,819), Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford (35,063), Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro (34,373), Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue (31,284) and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (28,979).


On the other side of the spectrum, New York-Newark-Jersey City (-100,214), Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim (-73,839), Chicago-Naperville-Elgin (-34,420), Boston-Cambridge-Newton (-28,953), Detroit-Warren-Dearborn (-25,405) and Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington (-22,129), all saw a decrease in middle-income homeowner households over the past decade. Despite this decrease, some markets such as Los Angeles and New York, still saw housing wealth rise due to increasing home prices.


As of the fourth quarter of 2021, the largest price gains, as a percent of the purchase price over the last decade were in Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale (275.3%), Atlanta-Sandy Springs (274.7%), Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise (251.7%), Cape Coral-Fort Myers (233.9%) and Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario (207.6%).


“Middle-income households in these growing markets have seen phenomenal gains in price appreciation,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement. “Given the rapid migration and robust job growth in these areas, I expect these markets to continue to see impressive price gains.”


Nationwide, the median single-family existing-home sales price rose at an annual pace of 8.3% from the fourth quarter of 2011 through the fourth quarter of 2021, according to NAR, and as of Q4 2021, the median single-family existing-home sales price rose by at least 10% in 67% of 183 metro areas tracked by NAR. This means that a homeowner who purchased a typical single-family existing home 10 years ago at the median sales price of $162,600 is likely to have accumulated $229,400 in housing wealth, with 86% of the wealth gain attributed to price appreciation.


“Owning a home continues to be a proven method for building long-term wealth,” Yun said in a statement. “Home values generally grow over time, so homeowners begin the wealth-building process as soon as they make a down payment and move to pay down their mortgage.” 


Although home prices fell roughly 30% during the Great Recession, home prices have grown at such a rate that a homeowner who purchased a home just five years ago would have accumulated $146,200 in housing wealth. As mortgage rates continue to remain low and housing inventory continues to decrease, NAR reported double-digit increases in the median single-family existing-home sales price in nearly two-thirds of the 183 metro areas it tracked.


While rising housing prices benefit homeowner, if prices rise too high they become unaffordable and low- and middle-income households cannot share in the wealth creation arising from homeownership.

“These escalating home values were no doubt beneficial to homeowners and home sellers,” Yun said in a statement. “However, as these markets flourish, middle-income wage earners face increasingly difficult affordability issues and are regrettably being priced out of the home-buying process.”


While the number of middle-income homeowners increased over the decade, they made up a smaller fraction of homeowners in 2020 at 43%, down from 45.5% in 2010. In 2020, just 27.7% of homeowners were low-income homeowners, down from 38.1% 10 years prior. Meanwhile, the share of high-income homeowners rose from 16.4% in 2010 to 29.8% in 2020.


According to NAR the homeownership rate across income groups has declined since the Great Recession. The largest drop was seen in the middle-income homeownership rate, which fell from 78.1% to 69.7%

The low-income and high-income homeownership rates fell two percentage points and four percentage points, respectively.



“Now, we must focus on increasing access to safe, affordable housing and ensuring that more people can begin to amass and pass on the gains from homeownership,” NAR president Leslie Rouda Smith said in a statement.




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By Didier Malagies April 28, 2025
After years of identifying the housing market as unhealthy — culminating in a savagely unhealthy housing market in early 2022 — I can confidently assert that the housing market in 2024 and 2025 is on better footing. This transformation sets an extremely positive foundation for what’s to come. Some recent headlines about housing suggest that demand is crashing. However, that’s not the case, as the data below will show. Today on CNBC , I discussed this very point: what is happening now is not only in line with my price forecasts for 2024 and 2025, but it’s why I am so happy to see inventory grow and price growth data cool down. What we saw in late 2020, all of 2021 and early 2022 was not sustainable and we needed higher mortgage rates to cool things down — hence why I was team higher rates early in 2021. The last two years have ushered in a healthier market for the future of existing home sales. Existing home sales Before the existing home sales report was released Thursday, I confidently predicted a month-to-month decline, while estimating the existing home sales print to be just a tad above 4 million. That’s precisely what occurred — no surprises there, as every month in 2025 has consistently exceeded 4 million. However, it’s important to note that our weekly pending home sales data has only recently begun to show growth compared to last year. We have an advantage over the data from the National Association of Realtors since our weekly pending home sales data is updated weekly, making their report somewhat outdated. The notable surprise for me in 2025 is the year-over-year growth we observe in the data, despite elevated mortgage rates. If mortgage rates were ranging between 6%-6.64%, I wouldn’t have been surprised at all because we are working from the lowest bar in sales ever. Purchase application data If someone had said the purchase application data would show positive trends both year to date and year over year by late April, even with mortgage rates not falling significantly below 6.64%, I would have found that hard to believe. Yet, here we are witnessing consistent year-over-year growth . Even with the recent rate spike, which has clearly cooled demand week to week, we are still positive. If mortgage rates can just trend down toward 6% with duration, sales are growing. Housing inventory and price growth While my forecast for national price growth in 2024 at 2.33% was too low and in 2025 at 1.77% may be too low again, it’s encouraging to see a slowdown in price growth, which I believe is a positive sign for the future. The increase in inventory is also promising and supports long-term stability in the housing market. We can anticipate that millions of people will continue to buy homes each year, and projections suggest that we’re on track for another nearly 5 million total home sales in 2025. As wages rise and households are formed, such as through marriage and bringing in dual incomes, this influx of inventory returning to normal levels provides an optimistic outlook. This trend in inventory data is truly heartening. Conclusion With all the data lines I added above, you can see why I have a renewed optimism about the housing market. If price growth significantly outpaced inflation and wages, and inventory wasn’t increasing, I’d be discussing a much different and more concerning state of affairs. Thankfully, that’s not the case. Historically, we’ve observed that when home sales dip due to higher rates, they may remain subdued for a while but ultimately rise again. This is common during recessions, as I discussed in this recent HousingWire Daily podcast . As you can see in the existing home sales data below, we had an epic crash in sales in 2022 but found a base to work from around 4 million. This trend has shaped the landscape of housing economics since post-WWII, reminding us that resilience and recovery are always within reach. 
By Didier Malagies April 28, 2025
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