Look for the 10 Year Treasury to come down

Didier Malagies • July 28, 2025


When the 10-year Treasury yield goes down, it generally signals lower interest rates and increased demand for safe-haven assets like U.S. government bonds. Here’s what typically happens across different areas of the economy and markets:


🔻 Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Drops

Increased demand for bonds: Investors buy Treasuries during uncertain times (e.g., recession fears, geopolitical risk), which drives prices up and yields down.


Expectations of lower inflation or interest rates: If the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates or inflation is cooling, yields tend to fall.


Weak economic outlook: Slowing growth or a poor jobs report can trigger a yield decline.


📉 Impacts of a Lower 10-Year Treasury Yield

🏦 1. Mortgage Rates and Loans

Mortgage rates (especially 30-year fixed) tend to follow the 10-year Treasury.


As yields fall, mortgage rates usually decline, making home loans cheaper.


This can stimulate the housing market and refinancing activity.


📈 2. Stock Market

Lower yields often boost stock prices, especially growth stocks (like tech), because:


Borrowing costs are lower.


Future earnings are worth more when discounted at a lower rate.


Defensive and interest-sensitive sectors (like utilities and real estate) also benefit.


💰 3. Consumer and Business Borrowing

Lower Treasury yields can lead to lower interest rates across the board, including for:


Auto loans


Credit cards


Business loans


This can boost consumer spending and business investment.


💵 4. U.S. Dollar

Falling yields can make U.S. assets less attractive to foreign investors.


This can weaken the dollar, which may help U.S. exporters by making goods cheaper abroad.


🪙 5. Inflation Expectations

If the yield is falling due to low inflation expectations, it may indicate deflationary pressure.


However, if it's just due to safe-haven buying, it might not reflect inflation at all.


⚠️ Potential Risks

A sharp drop in the 10-year yield can signal a recession or loss of confidence in the economy.


A flattening or inverted yield curve (when short-term rates are higher than long-term) can be a recession warning.


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