Will mortgage rates settle after the election ends and the Fed meets?

Didier Malagies • November 6, 2024


It’s a big week for the U.S. economy as the 2024 election takes place and monetary policymakers are meeting to decide what to do next about interest rates.


For mortgage professionals who’ve been dealing with uncertainty of late, more clarity could soon emerge. Mortgage rates have been rising quickly in recent weeks, dashing hopes for growth across the purchase and refinance lending channels.


According to HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center, the average 30-year conforming rate stood at 6.88% on Tuesday. This figure has jumped 16 basis points (bps) over the past week, 26 bps in the past two weeks and 57 bps since Sept. 18, when the Federal Reserve cut benchmark rates by half a percentage point.

The average 15-year conforming rate, meanwhile, grew to 6.55% on Tuesday — up an eye-popping 27 bps in one week. Conditions aren’t expected to improve in the short term, according to HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami.


“Mortgage rates are heading higher unless the spreads are fantastic today,” he wrote Tuesday. “The election data will create some wild swings, but the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) service report was a big beat of estimates, which made yields higher this morning after the report was released.”


Some help is expected Thursday in the form of another Fed rate cut. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, about 95% of interest rate traders believe the federal funds rate will be lowered by 25 bps. And there is a 77% chance of another 25-bps cut in December, which would bring the overnight rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.


“Assuming a 25-basis point cut in November, the September FOMC projections imply one additional quarter-point cut in December,” Sam Williamson, senior economist at First American, said in a statement. “However, additional upside surprises on inflation or employment data could influence the Fed to consider taking the December cut off the table. In contrast, accelerated economic weakness or a rapid slowdown in inflation could prompt the Fed to take a more dovish approach to policy normalization.”


While Tuesday is Election Day, the results of the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump may not be known immediately. The contest is expected to be extremely close and is likely to be decided by a handful of battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.


The presidential race, along with control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, could also factor into interest rate movements in the short term.


Survey data released Tuesday by Redfin found that 38% of early voters factored housing affordability into their choice between Harris and Trump. About one-third of respondents believe that rates will decline during a Trump presidency, compared to one-quarter who think the same under Harris. And more respondents believe rates will rise under Harris (32%) versus Trump (28%).


ICE Mortgage Technology reported this week that lower interest rates during the third quarter led to higher levels of home equity lending. Home equity withdrawals across both second-lien mortgages and cash-out refinances reached a two-year high mark in Q3 2024.


But even with a collective $48 billion in originations for these two categories from July through September, ICE reported that U.S. homeowners are touching only 0.42% of their tappable equity — the amount they can borrower against while keeping a 20% equity stake in the home.


The 10-year average extraction rate is 0.92%. Second mortgages are 26% below their historic utilization rate, while cash-out refis are 69% below normal.


ICE noted that “elevated interest rates have been a deterrent to homeowner equity utilization in recent quarters, as 30-year mortgage rates climbed at times into the high 7% range, curtailing cash-out refinance activity, and the average introductory rate on second lien home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) rose above 9.5%.”


If Fed policymakers continue on their rate-cutting path, however, this could make home equity loan products “more affordable and more attractive,” ICE concluded.



“Since the Fed began its latest cycle of rate hikes, the monthly payment needed to withdraw $50K via a HELOC more than doubled, from as low as $167 per month back in March 2022 to $413 in January of this year,” Andy Walden, the company’s vice president of research and analysis, said in a statement.



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By Didier Malagies October 27, 2025
🏦 1. Fed Rate vs. Market Rates When the Federal Reserve cuts rates, it lowers the federal funds rate — the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. That directly affects: Credit cards Auto loans Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) These tend to move quickly with Fed changes. 🏠 2. Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates are not directly set by the Fed — they’re more closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield, which moves based on investor expectations for: Future inflation Economic growth Fed policy in the future So, when the Fed signals a rate cut or actually cuts, Treasury yields often fall in anticipation, which can lead to lower mortgage rates — if investors believe inflation is under control and the economy is cooling. However: If markets think the Fed cut too early or inflation might return, yields can actually rise, keeping mortgage rates higher. So, mortgage rates don’t always fall right after a Fed cut. 📉 In short: Fed cuts → short-term rates (credit cards, HELOCs) usually fall fast. Mortgage rates → might fall if inflation expectations drop and bond yields decline — but not guaranteed. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329 
By Didier Malagies October 20, 2025
🟩 1. FHA Streamline Refinance Purpose: Simplify refinancing for homeowners who already have an FHA loan — lowering their rate or switching from an ARM to a fixed rate with minimal paperwork and cost. Key Features: No income verification usually required No appraisal required in most cases (uses the original home value) Limited credit check — just to confirm good payment history Must benefit financially (lower rate, lower payment, or move to a more stable loan) Basic Rules: You must already have an FHA-insured loan No late payments in the past 12 months At least 6 months must have passed since your current FHA loan was opened The refinance must result in a “net tangible benefit” — meaning it improves your financial situation Appraisal Waiver: Most FHA Streamlines don’t require an appraisal at all — it’s based on the original value when the loan was made. 👉 So, the loan amount can’t exceed your current unpaid principal balance plus upfront MIP (mortgage insurance premium). 🟦 2. VA Streamline Refinance (IRRRL) (IRRRL = Interest Rate Reduction Refinance Loan) Purpose: For veterans, service members, or eligible spouses who already have a VA loan, this program allows them to lower their rate quickly and cheaply. Key Features: No appraisal required (uses prior VA loan value) No income or employment verification Limited or no out-of-pocket costs (can roll costs into new loan) No cash-out allowed — it’s only to reduce the rate or switch from ARM to fixed Basic Rules: Must have an existing VA-backed loan Must show a net tangible benefit (like lowering monthly payment or rate) Must be current on mortgage payments Appraisal Waiver: VA Streamlines typically waive the appraisal entirely, meaning your home value isn’t rechecked. This makes the process much faster and easier. 🟨 3. The “90% Appraisal Waiver” Explained This term often shows up when: A lender chooses to order an appraisal, but wants to use an automated value system (AVM) or When the lender uses an appraisal waiver (like through FHA/VA automated systems) up to 90% of the home’s current estimated value. In practice: It means the lender or agency allows the loan amount to be up to 90% of the home’s estimated value without a full appraisal. It’s a type of limited-value check — often used when rates are being lowered and no cash-out is being taken. It helps borrowers avoid delays and costs tied to a new appraisal. Example: If your home’s estimated value (per AVM or prior appraisal) is $400,000, a 90% waiver means your loan can go up to $360,000 without needing a new appraisal. ✅ Summary Com  tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
By Didier Malagies October 13, 2025
Here are alternative ways to qualify for a mortgage without using tax returns: 🏦 1. Bank Statement Loans How it works: Lenders review 12–24 months of your business or personal bank statements to calculate your average monthly deposits (as income). Used for: Self-employed borrowers, business owners, gig workers, freelancers. What they look at: Deposit history and consistency Business expenses (they’ll apply an expense factor, usually 30–50%) No tax returns or W-2s required. 💳 2. Asset Depletion / Asset-Based Loans How it works: Instead of income, your assets (like savings, investments, or retirement funds) are used to demonstrate repayment ability. Used for: Retirees, high-net-worth individuals, or anyone with substantial savings but limited current income. Example: $1,000,000 in liquid assets might qualify as $4,000–$6,000/month “income” (depending on lender formula). 🧾 3. P&L (Profit and Loss) Statement Only Loans How it works: Lender uses a CPA- or tax-preparer-prepared Profit & Loss statement instead of tax returns. Used for: Self-employed borrowers who can show business income trends but don’t want to use full tax documents. Usually requires: 12–24 months in business + CPA verification. 🏘️ 4. DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) Loans How it works: Common for real estate investors — qualification is based on the property’s rental income, not your personal income. Formula: Gross Rent ÷ PITI (Principal + Interest + Taxes + Insurance) DSCR ≥ 1.0 means the property “covers itself.” No tax returns, W-2s, or employment verification needed. 💼 5. 1099 Income Loan How it works: Uses your 1099 forms (from contract work, commissions, or freelance income) as income documentation instead of full tax returns. Used for: Independent contractors, salespeople, consultants, etc. Often requires: 1–2 years of consistent 1099 income. Higher down payment and interest rate required. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329 
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