We’ve got rising home prices but no housing crash in sight The most recent jobs report looks good for housing and the end of forbearance

Didier Malagies • May 14, 2021

The key to the U.S. getting back on track economically is for its citizens to freely walk the earth again without the existential threat of COVID-19. The U.S. is getting closer and closer to meeting that goal, while other countries are still trying to control the virus. Before the successful vaccination program, I targeted Aug. 31, 2021, as the launching point for when we can fully achieve this, with the mindset that all jobs lost to COVID would be back online by September 2022 or earlier. Despite the last sub-par jobs report, we are currently on track to satisfy that prediction as we should be able to walk the earth freely before the end of August. This is the furthest thing from a housing crash that we could expect.


In February 2020, we had 152,523,000 nonfarm payroll workers, which isn’t all the workers in America, but most of them. Today, in May 2021, we have 144,308,000 nonfarm payroll folks working.


In the previous expansion, which was the longest economic and job expansion in history, the all-time high for job openings was 7,574,000. Today we have roughly 7,367,000 job openings and that number should get to 10 million by the end of this new expansion. As you can see with the chart below, not only has the housing data performed much better during this crisis, but job openings are roughly 5.5 million higher today than the worst levels of the great financial crisis.


We do have a pathway to get back to the employment numbers we had in February 2020 prior to COVID-19, but until that happens (September 2022 or earlier) don’t expect the Federal Reserve to hike the federal funds rate anytime soon. We will most likely need to see the employment to population ratio for prime-age workers get back to 80% before that happens. That metric is currently at 76.9% and tends to be sticky.



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Older Americans maintain record share of housing wealth Redfin says housing wealth held by those 70 and older has reached $13 trillion

By Didier Malagies • March 18, 2026
That Redfin data point—$13 trillion in housing wealth held by Americans 70+—is a big deal, and it ties into several powerful trends reshaping the housing and mortgage markets. What’s driving this record wealth? 1. Long-term home price appreciation Older homeowners bought decades ago at much lower prices and have benefited from massive appreciation, especially post-2020. 2. Low mortgage leverage Many in this age group either: Own their homes outright, or Have very small remaining balances So their equity = real wealth , not just paper gains. 3. Aging in place Instead of downsizing, many are staying put longer, allowing equity to continue compounding. Why this matters (big picture) 1. Supply constraint in housing Fewer older homeowners are selling, which: Keeps inventory tight Supports higher home prices This is one reason younger buyers are struggling to find affordable homes. 2. Wealth inequality across generations Younger generations: Face higher home prices Have less access to equity Meanwhile, older Americans control a disproportionate share of housing wealth. Implications for mortgage and lending 1. Rise of equity-based lending This trend directly fuels growth in: Reverse mortgages (HECMs) HELOCs Cash-out refinances That $13T is largely untapped liquidity . 2. “Living off equity” becomes more common With concerns around: Social Security stability Inflation More retirees are using housing wealth as: Income supplementation Emergency reserves 3. Intergenerational wealth transfer We’re seeing more: Parents helping kids with down payments Early inheritance strategies using home equity The hidden risk This isn’t risk-free: If home prices flatten or fall → equity shrinks Property taxes + insurance (especially in places like Florida) can pressure fixed-income retirees Liquidity is still “locked” unless accessed strategically Bottom line That $13 trillion figure isn’t just a stat—it represents a shift in where wealth lives in America : Housing is now the primary balance sheet asset for older Americans It’s becoming a retirement tool , not just a place to live And it’s quietly shaping everything from housing supply to lending innovation  Didier Malagies nmls212566 DDA Mortgage nmls324329
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