We’ve got rising home prices but no housing crash in sight The most recent jobs report looks good for housing and the end of forbearance

Didier Malagies • May 14, 2021

The key to the U.S. getting back on track economically is for its citizens to freely walk the earth again without the existential threat of COVID-19. The U.S. is getting closer and closer to meeting that goal, while other countries are still trying to control the virus. Before the successful vaccination program, I targeted Aug. 31, 2021, as the launching point for when we can fully achieve this, with the mindset that all jobs lost to COVID would be back online by September 2022 or earlier. Despite the last sub-par jobs report, we are currently on track to satisfy that prediction as we should be able to walk the earth freely before the end of August. This is the furthest thing from a housing crash that we could expect.


In February 2020, we had 152,523,000 nonfarm payroll workers, which isn’t all the workers in America, but most of them. Today, in May 2021, we have 144,308,000 nonfarm payroll folks working.


In the previous expansion, which was the longest economic and job expansion in history, the all-time high for job openings was 7,574,000. Today we have roughly 7,367,000 job openings and that number should get to 10 million by the end of this new expansion. As you can see with the chart below, not only has the housing data performed much better during this crisis, but job openings are roughly 5.5 million higher today than the worst levels of the great financial crisis.


We do have a pathway to get back to the employment numbers we had in February 2020 prior to COVID-19, but until that happens (September 2022 or earlier) don’t expect the Federal Reserve to hike the federal funds rate anytime soon. We will most likely need to see the employment to population ratio for prime-age workers get back to 80% before that happens. That metric is currently at 76.9% and tends to be sticky.



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gen x investors are confident, but they often lack a formal retirement plans says reverse mortgage

By Didier Malagies • February 2, 2026
gen x investors are confident, but they often lacka formal retirement plans says reverse mortgage

40% of all mortgages last year were refinances

By Didier Malagies • February 2, 2026
a large share of the refinances in 2025 were indeed driven by homeowners taking cash out of their home equity to consolidate debt or tap housing wealth, not just refinancing to get a lower interest rate. The data available on refinance activity in early and mid-2025 show this clearly: 🏠 1. Cash-Out (Equity Extraction) Was a Big Part of Refinances When mortgage rates stayed relatively high (often above ~6.5%), fewer borrowers could refinance purely to lower their rate or monthly payment. In that environment, lenders and borrowers often shifted toward cash-out refinances — where you borrow more than your existing mortgage and receive the difference in cash. According to Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data: In early 2025, cash-out refinances made up a majority of refinance activity — rising from about 56 % of refinances to roughly 64 % in the first quarter of the year. That means most refinance borrowers were actually pulling equity out. 💳 2. Cash-Out Often Leads to Debt Consolidation Borrowers commonly use the cash from a cash-out refinance to pay down higher-interest personal debt, like credit cards or auto loans. A Consumer Financial Protection Bureau report (covering broader refinance behavior) found that the most frequent stated reason for cash-out refinancing was to “pay off other bills or debts.” This happens because: Mortgage interest rates on large balances may still be lower than credit card or personal loan interest rates. Consolidating high-interest debt into a mortgage can simplify payments and reduce total interest costs — as long as the homeowner plans correctly and understands the risks of converting unsecured debt into home-secured debt. 📉 3. Rate-Reduction Refinancing Was Less Dominant Compared with past refinance cycles (especially when rates plunged), rate-and-term refinances — where the main goal is lowering your interest rate and monthly payment — were less dominant in 2025. The FHFA reports suggest that because average mortgage rates stayed relatively elevated during the first part of 2025, cash-out refinances became a bigger share — not just refinance for rate savings. 📊 What This Means in Simple Terms Not all refinance activity is about getting a lower rate. A substantial chunk of 2025 refinance volume was cash-out refinancing. Many homeowners took some of that cash to consolidate other debt, meaning part of the high refinance share reflects debt consolidation activity, not solely traditional mortgage refinancing for rate/term improvement. So yes — while refinancing to lower the rate still happened, a lot of the refinance volume in 2025 was linked to cash-out and debt consolidation purposes. This helps explain why refinance activity remained relatively strong even when interest rates weren’t plummeting. Let me know if you want some numbers or examples of how much debt consolidation affected total refinancing! 3 messages remaining. Start a free Business trial to keep the conversation going Try Business free tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329

Asset based lending with no min fico score

By Didier Malagies • January 26, 2026
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