When will the Federal Reserve raise rates? Here's the data the Fed is actually focused on for rates

Didier Malagies • May 4, 2021

I propose adding a new pastime to our gold standards of baseball, barbecues, and Thanksgiving dinner. This new pastime I call Fed-Watch or When Will the Fed Raise Rates? Since the financial crisis of 2008, this pastime has gained popularity to the point where this guessing game has become an obsession and started to drive some folks a little batty. Insanity and Gold Bugs go together like a horse and carriage, peanut butter and jelly and salt and pepper, or so I’ve been told. 


But now that the U.S. economy is about to have one of the most impressive comeback plays ever in history, this pastime question becomes relevant: When will the Fed raise rates?


Part of the fun of this Fed guessing game is deciphering the clues dropped by members of the Federal Reserve. In the past many months, the Fed has indicated through their standard channels of smoke signals and voodoo chants that they won’t raise rates in 2021 no matter how hot the economic data looks. They are using the jobs data to guide their next steps and will not raise rates while we still have over 8 million Americans unemployed.




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By Didier Malagies October 27, 2025
🏦 1. Fed Rate vs. Market Rates When the Federal Reserve cuts rates, it lowers the federal funds rate — the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. That directly affects: Credit cards Auto loans Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) These tend to move quickly with Fed changes. 🏠 2. Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates are not directly set by the Fed — they’re more closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield, which moves based on investor expectations for: Future inflation Economic growth Fed policy in the future So, when the Fed signals a rate cut or actually cuts, Treasury yields often fall in anticipation, which can lead to lower mortgage rates — if investors believe inflation is under control and the economy is cooling. However: If markets think the Fed cut too early or inflation might return, yields can actually rise, keeping mortgage rates higher. So, mortgage rates don’t always fall right after a Fed cut. 📉 In short: Fed cuts → short-term rates (credit cards, HELOCs) usually fall fast. Mortgage rates → might fall if inflation expectations drop and bond yields decline — but not guaranteed. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329 
By Didier Malagies October 20, 2025
🟩 1. FHA Streamline Refinance Purpose: Simplify refinancing for homeowners who already have an FHA loan — lowering their rate or switching from an ARM to a fixed rate with minimal paperwork and cost. Key Features: No income verification usually required No appraisal required in most cases (uses the original home value) Limited credit check — just to confirm good payment history Must benefit financially (lower rate, lower payment, or move to a more stable loan) Basic Rules: You must already have an FHA-insured loan No late payments in the past 12 months At least 6 months must have passed since your current FHA loan was opened The refinance must result in a “net tangible benefit” — meaning it improves your financial situation Appraisal Waiver: Most FHA Streamlines don’t require an appraisal at all — it’s based on the original value when the loan was made. 👉 So, the loan amount can’t exceed your current unpaid principal balance plus upfront MIP (mortgage insurance premium). 🟦 2. VA Streamline Refinance (IRRRL) (IRRRL = Interest Rate Reduction Refinance Loan) Purpose: For veterans, service members, or eligible spouses who already have a VA loan, this program allows them to lower their rate quickly and cheaply. Key Features: No appraisal required (uses prior VA loan value) No income or employment verification Limited or no out-of-pocket costs (can roll costs into new loan) No cash-out allowed — it’s only to reduce the rate or switch from ARM to fixed Basic Rules: Must have an existing VA-backed loan Must show a net tangible benefit (like lowering monthly payment or rate) Must be current on mortgage payments Appraisal Waiver: VA Streamlines typically waive the appraisal entirely, meaning your home value isn’t rechecked. This makes the process much faster and easier. 🟨 3. The “90% Appraisal Waiver” Explained This term often shows up when: A lender chooses to order an appraisal, but wants to use an automated value system (AVM) or When the lender uses an appraisal waiver (like through FHA/VA automated systems) up to 90% of the home’s current estimated value. In practice: It means the lender or agency allows the loan amount to be up to 90% of the home’s estimated value without a full appraisal. It’s a type of limited-value check — often used when rates are being lowered and no cash-out is being taken. It helps borrowers avoid delays and costs tied to a new appraisal. Example: If your home’s estimated value (per AVM or prior appraisal) is $400,000, a 90% waiver means your loan can go up to $360,000 without needing a new appraisal. ✅ Summary Com  tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
By Didier Malagies October 13, 2025
Here are alternative ways to qualify for a mortgage without using tax returns: 🏦 1. Bank Statement Loans How it works: Lenders review 12–24 months of your business or personal bank statements to calculate your average monthly deposits (as income). Used for: Self-employed borrowers, business owners, gig workers, freelancers. What they look at: Deposit history and consistency Business expenses (they’ll apply an expense factor, usually 30–50%) No tax returns or W-2s required. 💳 2. Asset Depletion / Asset-Based Loans How it works: Instead of income, your assets (like savings, investments, or retirement funds) are used to demonstrate repayment ability. Used for: Retirees, high-net-worth individuals, or anyone with substantial savings but limited current income. Example: $1,000,000 in liquid assets might qualify as $4,000–$6,000/month “income” (depending on lender formula). 🧾 3. P&L (Profit and Loss) Statement Only Loans How it works: Lender uses a CPA- or tax-preparer-prepared Profit & Loss statement instead of tax returns. Used for: Self-employed borrowers who can show business income trends but don’t want to use full tax documents. Usually requires: 12–24 months in business + CPA verification. 🏘️ 4. DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) Loans How it works: Common for real estate investors — qualification is based on the property’s rental income, not your personal income. Formula: Gross Rent ÷ PITI (Principal + Interest + Taxes + Insurance) DSCR ≥ 1.0 means the property “covers itself.” No tax returns, W-2s, or employment verification needed. 💼 5. 1099 Income Loan How it works: Uses your 1099 forms (from contract work, commissions, or freelance income) as income documentation instead of full tax returns. Used for: Independent contractors, salespeople, consultants, etc. Often requires: 1–2 years of consistent 1099 income. Higher down payment and interest rate required. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329 
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