Why the housing market is actually much healthier in 2025

Didier Malagies • April 28, 2025



After years of identifying the housing market as unhealthy — culminating in a savagely unhealthy housing market in early 2022 — I can confidently assert that the housing market in 2024 and 2025 is on better footing. This transformation sets an extremely positive foundation for what’s to come. Some recent headlines about housing suggest that demand is crashing. However, that’s not the case, as the data below will show.


Today on CNBC, I discussed this very point: what is happening now is not only in line with my price forecasts for 2024 and 2025, but it’s why I am so happy to see inventory grow and price growth data cool down. What we saw in late 2020, all of 2021 and early 2022 was not sustainable and we needed higher mortgage rates to cool things down — hence why I was team higher rates early in 2021. The last two years have ushered in a healthier market for the future of existing home sales.


Existing home sales

Before the existing home sales report was released Thursday, I confidently predicted a month-to-month decline, while estimating the existing home sales print to be just a tad above 4 million. That’s precisely what occurred — no surprises there, as every month in 2025 has consistently exceeded 4 million. However, it’s important to note that our weekly pending home sales data has only recently begun to show growth compared to last year. We have an advantage over the data from the National Association of Realtors since our weekly pending home sales data is updated weekly, making their report somewhat outdated.

The notable surprise for me in 2025 is the year-over-year growth we observe in the data, despite elevated mortgage rates. If mortgage rates were ranging between 6%-6.64%, I wouldn’t have been surprised at all because we are working from the lowest bar in sales ever.


Purchase application data

If someone had said the purchase application data would show positive trends both year to date and year over year by late April, even with mortgage rates not falling significantly below 6.64%, I would have found that hard to believe. Yet, here we are witnessing consistent year-over-year growth. Even with the recent rate spike, which has clearly cooled demand week to week, we are still positive. If mortgage rates can just trend down toward 6% with duration, sales are growing.


Housing inventory and price growth

While my forecast for national price growth in 2024 at 2.33% was too low and in 2025 at 1.77% may be too low again, it’s encouraging to see a slowdown in price growth, which I believe is a positive sign for the future. The increase in inventory is also promising and supports long-term stability in the housing market.

We can anticipate that millions of people will continue to buy homes each year, and projections suggest that we’re on track for another nearly 5 million total home sales in 2025. As wages rise and households are formed, such as through marriage and bringing in dual incomes, this influx of inventory returning to normal levels provides an optimistic outlook. This trend in inventory data is truly heartening.


Conclusion

With all the data lines I added above, you can see why I have a renewed optimism about the housing market. If price growth significantly outpaced inflation and wages, and inventory wasn’t increasing, I’d be discussing a much different and more concerning state of affairs. Thankfully, that’s not the case.

Historically, we’ve observed that when home sales dip due to higher rates, they may remain subdued for a while but ultimately rise again. This is common during recessions, as I discussed in this recent HousingWire Daily podcast. As you can see in the existing home sales data below, we had an epic crash in sales in 2022 but found a base to work from around 4 million.


This trend has shaped the landscape of housing economics since post-WWII, reminding us that resilience and recovery are always within reach.




Have A Question?

Use the form below and we will give your our expert answers!

Reverse Mortgage Ask A Question

Start Your Loan with DDA today
Your local Mortgage Broker

Mortgage Broker Largo
See our Reviews

Looking for more details? Listen to our extended podcast! 

Check out our other helpful videos to learn more about credit and residential mortgages.

Finally, putting a stop on the trigger list

By Didier Malagies • September 10, 2025
Excited to share a major update that will make the homebuying process more secure and less stressful. President Donald Trump recently signed the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act of 2025 into law. This bill is a significant victory for the real estate industry, as it directly addresses the problem of unwanted calls, texts, and emails that often flood clients upon mortgage application. What's Changing? For years, many borrowers have experienced a barrage of unsolicited contact from different lenders immediately after their mortgage application. This happens because of "trigger leads"—a process where credit reporting agencies sell information to other companies once a credit inquiry is made. Effective March 5, 2026, this new law will put a stop to this practice. It will severely limit who can receive client contact information, ensuring client privacy is protected. A credit reporting agency will only be able to share trigger lead information with a third party if: • Clients explicitly consent to the solicitations. • The third party has an existing business relationship. This change means a more efficient, respectful, and responsible homebuying journey. We are committed to a seamless process and will keep you informed of any further developments as the effective date approaches. In the meantime, you can use the information below to inform clients how to proactively protect themselves from unwanted solicitations.  Opting Out: • OptOutPrescreen.com: You can opt out of trigger leads through the official opt-out service, OptOutPrescreen.com. • Do Not Call Registry: You can also register your phone number with the National Do Not Call Registry to reduce unsolicited calls. • DMA.choice.org: For mail solicitations, you can register with DMA.choice.org to reduce promotional mail. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329

Finally putting a stop to the Trigger leads from happening

By Didier Malagies • September 10, 2025
We're excited to share a major update that will make the homebuying process more secure and less stressful. President Donald Trump recently signed the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act of 2025 into law. This bill is a significant victory for the real estate industry, as it directly addresses the problem of unwanted calls, texts, and emails that often flood clients upon mortgage application. What's Changing? For years, many borrowers have experienced a barrage of unsolicited contact from different lenders immediately after their mortgage application. This happens because of "trigger leads"—a process where credit reporting agencies sell information to other companies once a credit inquiry is made. Effective March 5, 2026, this new law will put a stop to this practice. It will severely limit who can receive client contact information, ensuring client privacy is protected. A credit reporting agency will only be able to share trigger lead information with a third party if: • Clients explicitly consent to the solicitations. • The third party has an existing business relationship. This change means a more efficient, respectful, and responsible homebuying journey. We are committed to a seamless process and will keep you informed of any further developments as the effective date approaches. In the meantime, you can use the information below to inform clients how to proactively protect themselves from unwanted solicitations. Opting Out: • OptOutPrescreen.com: You can opt out of trigger leads through the official opt-out service, OptOutPrescreen.com. • Do Not Call Registry: You can also register your phone number with the National Do Not Call Registry to reduce unsolicited calls. • DMA.choice.org: For mail solicitations, you can register with DMA.choice.org to reduce promotional mail. Didier Malagies nmls212566 DDA Mortgage nmls324329 

When is the right time to refinance your mortgage

By Didier Malagies • September 8, 2025
Good question — refinancing can be a smart move, but the timing really matters. The "right time" to refinance your mortgage depends on a mix of personal and market factors. Here are the main ones to weigh: 1. Interest Rates If current mortgage rates are at least 2% lower than your existing rate, refinancing could save you money. Example: Dropping from 7% to 6% on a $300,000 loan can save hundreds per month. 2. Loan Term Goals Switching from a 30-year to a 15-year mortgage can help you pay off your home faster (though monthly payments are higher). Extending your term may lower your monthly payment but increase total interest paid. 3. Equity in Your Home Lenders usually want you to have at least 20% equity for the best rates and to avoid private mortgage insurance (PMI). If your home’s value has increased, refinancing can help eliminate PMI. 4. Credit Score If your credit score has improved since you got your mortgage, you may now qualify for much better rates. 5. Life Situation Planning to stay in the home at least 3–5 years? That’s often how long it takes to “break even” on refinance closing costs. If you might sell sooner, refinancing may not make sense. 6. Debt or Cash Needs A cash-out refinance can help if you want to consolidate higher-interest debt, fund renovations, or free up cash — but it raises your loan balance. ✅ Rule of Thumb: Refinance if you can lower your rate, shorten your term, or eliminate PMI, and you’ll stay in the home long enough to recover the costs. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
Show More