Will there be a housing supply shortage in 2021? First American's Mark Fleming shares his housing market forecast for 2021

Didier Malagies • January 11, 2021

Will there be a housing supply shortage in 2021?

First American's Mark Fleming shares his housing market forecast for 2021

This is the fifth installment of our economist Q&A series, as we work to answer the top 2021 housing market questions for our HW+ members. Every Tuesday in December, HousingWire interviewed a top economist in the HW+ Slack channel. In each Q&A, we attempt to bring clarity to the top questions around housing supply shortages in 2021, the future of foreclosures and the future generation of homebuyers.


In this installment, HousingWire interviewed Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American, on his forecast for next year. This interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity. 


HW: In your commentary, you say the speed of the housing recovery was surprising, but the underlying factors that created it were not. Why is that? 


Mark Fleming: First, I just have to say that I was/am amazed at how well the housing market fared this year, considering! That’s a testament to the hard work of many of you on this chat…so thank you! For what turned out to be an amazing 2020, despite the pandemic


I think I was surprised because I didn’t realize how pandemic-proof the market really was when it all got started in March. But, we quickly realized that the potential homeowner was going to be much less impacted by the recession, and at the same time, those young Millennial buyers were going to benefit from even lower mortgage rates.


Strong demographics, low rates, and then no housing supply…a recipe for market success! These were all in place before the pandemic…they just proved so resilient TO the pandemic!


HW: When you talk about pent-up demand you reference Millennial homebuyers. Are we starting to see any interest in home buying from Gen Z? 



Mark Fleming: Gen Z? We need to first ride the wave of Gen Y.

But more seriously…not much yet. What Millennials showed was that eventually they wanted to become homeowners (in their early 30’s). There has been a pretty steady progression in waiting for homeownership by generation.

Silent- early 20’s

Baby boomers- mid 20s

my generation- late 20s

Millennials- early 30’s

soooo… my guess is that Gen Z may wait even longer. They have time!



Start Your Loan with DDA today
Your local Mortgage Broker

Mortgage Broker Largo
See our Reviews

Looking for more details? Listen to our extended podcast! 

Check out our other helpful videos to learn more about credit and residential mortgages.

By Didier Malagies January 12, 2026
1. HOA / Condo Association Loans (Most Common) These are commercial loans made directly to the association, not individual unit owners. Typical uses Roof replacement Structural repairs Painting, paving, elevators, plumbing Insurance-driven or reserve shortfalls Key features No lien on individual units Repaid through monthly assessments Terms: 5–20 years Fixed or adjustable rates Can be structured as: Fully amortizing loan Interest-only period upfront Line of credit for phased projects Underwriting looks at Number of units Owner-occupancy ratio Delinquency rate Budget, reserves, and assessment history No personal guarantees from owners 2. Special Assessment Financing (Owner-Friendly Option) Instead of asking owners to write large checks upfront: The association levies a special assessment Owners can finance their portion monthly Reduces resistance and default risk Keeps unit owners on predictable payments This is especially helpful in senior-heavy or fixed-income communities. 3. Reserve Replenishment Loans If reserves were drained for an emergency repair: Association borrows to rebuild reserves Keeps the condo compliant with lender and insurance requirements Helps protect unit values and marketability 4. Florida-Specific Reality (Important) Given your frequent focus on Florida condos, this resonates strongly right now: New structural integrity & reserve requirements Insurance-driven roof timelines Older associations facing multi-million-dollar projects Financing often prevents forced unit sales or assessment shock Many boards don’t realize financing is even an option until it’s explained clearly. 5. How to Position the Conversation (What to Say) You can frame it simply: “Rather than a large one-time special assessment, the association can finance the project and spread the cost over time—keeping dues manageable and protecting property values.” That line alone opens the door. 6. What Lenders Will Usually Ask For Current budget and balance sheet Reserve study (if available) Insurance certificates Delinquency report Project scope and contractor estimate Bottom Line Condo associations do not have to self-fund roofs or major repairs anymore. Financing: Preserves cash Reduces owner pushback Helps boards stay compliant Protects resale values Tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
By Didier Malagies January 9, 2026
Unexpected retirement expenses can strain senior homeowners
By Didier Malagies January 8, 2026
Social Security proposals raise stakes for senior homeowners Social Security’s trust funds are projected to be depleted by 2032
Show More