Can government job cuts lead to lower mortgage rates for spring?

Didier Malagies • February 24, 2025


Could the loss of jobs in the government sector and the withdrawal of funding from the economy significantly increase the unemployment rate and a surge in jobless claims? If this happens, will we see lower mortgage rates this spring?


It’s an intriguing thought, especially considering how this aligns with White House officials’ strategy to boost labor supply, reduce aggregate demand, and potentially drive down the 10-year yield.


I have been delving into this topic for a while now and I took another deep dive in this recent episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast. The government’s actions impact the livelihoods of many Americans — not just through layoffs of federal workers but also by cutting funding that will result in more jobs being lost. It feels like a broader game plan is at play here, worth exploring as we navigate these economic changes together.

10-year yield and mortgage rates 


In my 2025 forecast, I anticipate the following ranges:

Mortgage rates will be between 5.75% and 7.25%

The 10-year yield will fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70%


So far in 2025, we have consistently been near the upper end of the year’s forecast. However, last week saw a decline in mortgage rates due to softer economic data, which led to an influx of money into the bond market as stocks sold off on Friday. Since 2022, whenever mortgage rates have approached 6% it’s because the bond market is concerned about the economy slowing down.


Currently, with the economic data available, the 10-year yield and Fed policy align reasonably well. However, the bond market may be concerned that if the unemployment rate rises, particularly with jobless claims increasing due to government layoffs and more negative impacts from less money circulating in the economy, we could see more money flowing into bonds, sending yields and mortgage rates lower.


We need to be more mindful of the labor data as we go further into 2025. Each year, millions of people are fired from the private sector. However, if we focus on government workers and government contractors, it’s likely that the unemployment rate will rise in 2025. This increase could challenge the Federal Reserve‘s target limit of 4.3%.



The White House is looking for a lower 10-year yield and the bond market has in the past gotten ahead of the Fed when it smells an economic growth scare, this has meant the 10-year yield and mortgage rates go lower. As you can see in the chart below, we are 36 basis points lower than the peak of what we saw on Jan. 14.




Have A Question?

Use the form below and we will give your our expert answers!

Reverse Mortgage Ask A Question


Start Your Loan with DDA today
Your local Mortgage Broker

Mortgage Broker Largo
See our Reviews

Looking for more details? Listen to our extended podcast! 

Check out our other helpful videos to learn more about credit and residential mortgages.

By Didier Malagies October 27, 2025
🏦 1. Fed Rate vs. Market Rates When the Federal Reserve cuts rates, it lowers the federal funds rate — the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. That directly affects: Credit cards Auto loans Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) These tend to move quickly with Fed changes. 🏠 2. Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates are not directly set by the Fed — they’re more closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield, which moves based on investor expectations for: Future inflation Economic growth Fed policy in the future So, when the Fed signals a rate cut or actually cuts, Treasury yields often fall in anticipation, which can lead to lower mortgage rates — if investors believe inflation is under control and the economy is cooling. However: If markets think the Fed cut too early or inflation might return, yields can actually rise, keeping mortgage rates higher. So, mortgage rates don’t always fall right after a Fed cut. 📉 In short: Fed cuts → short-term rates (credit cards, HELOCs) usually fall fast. Mortgage rates → might fall if inflation expectations drop and bond yields decline — but not guaranteed. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329 
By Didier Malagies October 20, 2025
🟩 1. FHA Streamline Refinance Purpose: Simplify refinancing for homeowners who already have an FHA loan — lowering their rate or switching from an ARM to a fixed rate with minimal paperwork and cost. Key Features: No income verification usually required No appraisal required in most cases (uses the original home value) Limited credit check — just to confirm good payment history Must benefit financially (lower rate, lower payment, or move to a more stable loan) Basic Rules: You must already have an FHA-insured loan No late payments in the past 12 months At least 6 months must have passed since your current FHA loan was opened The refinance must result in a “net tangible benefit” — meaning it improves your financial situation Appraisal Waiver: Most FHA Streamlines don’t require an appraisal at all — it’s based on the original value when the loan was made. 👉 So, the loan amount can’t exceed your current unpaid principal balance plus upfront MIP (mortgage insurance premium). 🟦 2. VA Streamline Refinance (IRRRL) (IRRRL = Interest Rate Reduction Refinance Loan) Purpose: For veterans, service members, or eligible spouses who already have a VA loan, this program allows them to lower their rate quickly and cheaply. Key Features: No appraisal required (uses prior VA loan value) No income or employment verification Limited or no out-of-pocket costs (can roll costs into new loan) No cash-out allowed — it’s only to reduce the rate or switch from ARM to fixed Basic Rules: Must have an existing VA-backed loan Must show a net tangible benefit (like lowering monthly payment or rate) Must be current on mortgage payments Appraisal Waiver: VA Streamlines typically waive the appraisal entirely, meaning your home value isn’t rechecked. This makes the process much faster and easier. 🟨 3. The “90% Appraisal Waiver” Explained This term often shows up when: A lender chooses to order an appraisal, but wants to use an automated value system (AVM) or When the lender uses an appraisal waiver (like through FHA/VA automated systems) up to 90% of the home’s current estimated value. In practice: It means the lender or agency allows the loan amount to be up to 90% of the home’s estimated value without a full appraisal. It’s a type of limited-value check — often used when rates are being lowered and no cash-out is being taken. It helps borrowers avoid delays and costs tied to a new appraisal. Example: If your home’s estimated value (per AVM or prior appraisal) is $400,000, a 90% waiver means your loan can go up to $360,000 without needing a new appraisal. ✅ Summary Com  tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
By Didier Malagies October 13, 2025
Here are alternative ways to qualify for a mortgage without using tax returns: 🏦 1. Bank Statement Loans How it works: Lenders review 12–24 months of your business or personal bank statements to calculate your average monthly deposits (as income). Used for: Self-employed borrowers, business owners, gig workers, freelancers. What they look at: Deposit history and consistency Business expenses (they’ll apply an expense factor, usually 30–50%) No tax returns or W-2s required. 💳 2. Asset Depletion / Asset-Based Loans How it works: Instead of income, your assets (like savings, investments, or retirement funds) are used to demonstrate repayment ability. Used for: Retirees, high-net-worth individuals, or anyone with substantial savings but limited current income. Example: $1,000,000 in liquid assets might qualify as $4,000–$6,000/month “income” (depending on lender formula). 🧾 3. P&L (Profit and Loss) Statement Only Loans How it works: Lender uses a CPA- or tax-preparer-prepared Profit & Loss statement instead of tax returns. Used for: Self-employed borrowers who can show business income trends but don’t want to use full tax documents. Usually requires: 12–24 months in business + CPA verification. 🏘️ 4. DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) Loans How it works: Common for real estate investors — qualification is based on the property’s rental income, not your personal income. Formula: Gross Rent ÷ PITI (Principal + Interest + Taxes + Insurance) DSCR ≥ 1.0 means the property “covers itself.” No tax returns, W-2s, or employment verification needed. 💼 5. 1099 Income Loan How it works: Uses your 1099 forms (from contract work, commissions, or freelance income) as income documentation instead of full tax returns. Used for: Independent contractors, salespeople, consultants, etc. Often requires: 1–2 years of consistent 1099 income. Higher down payment and interest rate required. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329 
Show More