Fannie Mae cuts origination projection, forecasts recession in 2023 Fannie expects mortgage originations to total $2.8 trillion in 2022 and $2.4 trillion in 2023

Didier Malagies • April 21, 2022


Fannie Mae has lowered its mortgage origination forecasts for 2022 and 2023 due to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) aggressive inflation-fighting monetary policy and corresponding volatility in the mortgage market.

Fannie’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group dropped its projected single-family mortgage origination volume for 2022 from $3 trillion to $2.8 trillion. It also downsized the 2023 forecast from $2.7 trillion to $2.4 trillion. To compare, in 2021, the total was $4.5 trillion. 


Higher interest rates reduce borrowers’ appetite for refinancing, which is expected to decline from 58% of the mix in 2021 to 32% this year. In volumes, it represents $889 billion and $558 billion, respectively. Fannie Mae estimates that with rates at 5%, only 2.3% of all outstanding loan balances have a refinance rate incentive of at least 50 basis points.


Purchases will also decline in a more challenging landscape, from $1.93 trillion in 2022 to $1.85 trillion in 2023, both downward revisions from Fannie’s last month’s forecast.


Mortgage rates have ratcheted up dramatically over the past few months, and historically such large movements have ended with a housing slowdown. Consequently, we expect home sales, house prices, and mortgage volumes to cool over the next two years,” Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist, said in a statement. 


According to Duncan, households with a 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 3% are unlikely to give that up in favor of a rate closer to 5%, a “lock-in” effect that will weigh on home sales. 


Staying nimble in a fast-paced market with the right mortgage technology

In the rapid-fire, volatile mortgage marketplace, lenders need technologies to help them remain nimble and successfully navigate constant change. Advanced product, pricing and eligibility technology creates efficiencies and helps lenders compete in a fast-paced market.

Presented by: Black Knight


Fannie Mae expects a 7.4% decline in home sales for 2022, followed by a 9.7% reduction in 2023 – previously, it expected a 4.1% drop this year and 2.7% in the next year. The house prices growth forecast is at 10.8% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023. 


Regarding the overall economy, the ESR Group downgraded the 2022 GDP forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 2.1%, as record-high job openings are bringing near-term resilience to the economy, despite higher interest rates and the impacts of the war in Ukraine. 


But, for 2023, the scenario is more challenging. Fannie Mae changed its GDP forecast from a growth of 2.2% to a decline of 0.1%. According to the agency, a “soft-landing” – when inflation subsides without economic contraction – is possible, but historically such an outcome is an exception, not a norm. 

Fannie’s predictions show that, after peaking at 8.5% in March, inflation may be reduced to 5.5% in the fourth quarter of 2022. The unemployment rate is expected to reach 6% at some point in 2024, a change similar in magnitude to the 1990 and 2001 recessions.


“Data from U.S. economic history suggest that successfully negotiating a ‘soft landing’ requires monetary tightening to be pre-emptive rather than responsive,” Duncan said. “As such, we’ve updated our 2023 forecast to include a modest recession, but one that we do not expect to be similar in magnitude or duration to the recession of 2008.”


According to Fannie Mae, the mortgage credit quality is far superior in the current period, the residential real estate and the mortgage finance system are less leveraged now, and servicers are better equipped to deal with delinquencies. 





Start Your Loan with DDA today
Your local Mortgage Broker

Mortgage Broker Largo
See our Reviews

Looking for more details? Listen to our extended podcast! 

Check out our other helpful videos to learn more about credit and residential mortgages.

By Didier Malagies July 28, 2025
When the 10-year Treasury yield goes down, it generally signals lower interest rates and increased demand for safe-haven assets like U.S. government bonds. Here’s what typically happens across different areas of the economy and markets: 🔻 Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Drops Increased demand for bonds: Investors buy Treasuries during uncertain times (e.g., recession fears, geopolitical risk), which drives prices up and yields down. Expectations of lower inflation or interest rates: If the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates or inflation is cooling, yields tend to fall. Weak economic outlook: Slowing growth or a poor jobs report can trigger a yield decline. 📉 Impacts of a Lower 10-Year Treasury Yield 🏦 1. Mortgage Rates and Loans Mortgage rates (especially 30-year fixed) tend to follow the 10-year Treasury. As yields fall, mortgage rates usually decline, making home loans cheaper. This can stimulate the housing market and refinancing activity. 📈 2. Stock Market Lower yields often boost stock prices, especially growth stocks (like tech), because: Borrowing costs are lower. Future earnings are worth more when discounted at a lower rate. Defensive and interest-sensitive sectors (like utilities and real estate) also benefit. 💰 3. Consumer and Business Borrowing Lower Treasury yields can lead to lower interest rates across the board, including for: Auto loans Credit cards Business loans This can boost consumer spending and business investment. 💵 4. U.S. Dollar Falling yields can make U.S. assets less attractive to foreign investors. This can weaken the dollar, which may help U.S. exporters by making goods cheaper abroad. 🪙 5. Inflation Expectations If the yield is falling due to low inflation expectations, it may indicate deflationary pressure. However, if it's just due to safe-haven buying, it might not reflect inflation at all. ⚠️ Potential Risks A sharp drop in the 10-year yield can signal a recession or loss of confidence in the economy. A flattening or inverted yield curve (when short-term rates are higher than long-term) can be a recession warning. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
By Didier Malagies July 21, 2025
Resi/commercial Typical 2-3 units over a 1-unit ground-floor commercial space LTV’s up to 75% A mixed-use property is a type of real estate development that combines two or more different uses within a single building or development. The most common combination is residential and commercial — for example, apartments or condos above ground-floor retail or office space. 🔑 Key Characteristics of a Mixed-Use Property: Feature Description Use Types Typically includes residential, commercial, retail, office, and sometimes hospitality or industrial components. Zoning Must be zoned for mixed-use by the local municipality. Layout Different uses are separated vertically (e.g., retail on the bottom, housing on top) or horizontally (different sections of the development). Ownership Can be owned by an individual, company, REIT, or government entity; may be leased or sold as separate units. Financing Considered commercial real estate; underwriting depends on the income mix and proportions of use types. 🏢 Common Mixed-Use Examples: Urban Buildings: Apartments above restaurants or retail stores (like Starbucks or a dry cleaner). Suburban Developments: Townhome communities built around a retail plaza or office park. Live/Work Units: Ground-floor office or retail space with a residence above, often used by entrepreneurs. Transit-Oriented Developments: Mixed-use buildings near train stations or bus hubs. 📊 Benefits of Mixed-Use Properties: Diversified Income Streams (residential + commercial) Increased Foot Traffic for businesses Live-Work-Play Environment appeals to urban dwellers Higher Land Use Efficiency and potentially better returns Encouraged by city planning to reduce sprawl and support sustainability A mixed-use property is a type of real estate development that combines two or more different uses within a single building or development. The most common combination is residential and commercial — for example, apartments or condos above ground-floor retail or office space. 🔑 Key Characteristics of a Mixed-Use Property: Feature Description Use Types Typically includes residential, commercial, retail, office, and sometimes hospitality or industrial components. Zoning Must be zoned for mixed-use by the local municipality. Layout Different uses are separated vertically (e.g., retail on bottom, housing on top) or horizontally (different sections of the development). Ownership Can be owned by an individual, company, REIT, or government entity; may be leased or sold as separate units. Financing Considered commercial real estate; underwriting depends on the income mix and proportions of use types. 🏢 Common Mixed-Use Examples: Urban Buildings: Apartments above restaurants or retail stores (like Starbucks or a dry cleaner). Suburban Developments: Townhome communities built around a retail plaza or office park. Live/Work Units: Ground-floor office or retail space with a residence above, often used by entrepreneurs. Transit-Oriented Developments: Mixed-use buildings near train stations or bus hubs. 📊 Benefits of Mixed-Use Properties: Diversified Income Streams (residential + commercial) Increased Foot Traffic for businesses Live-Work-Play Environment appeals to urban dwellers Higher Land Use Efficiency and potentially better returns Encouraged by city planning to reduce sprawl and support sustainability and 🔑 Key Characteristics of 5–10 Unit Multifamily Properties: Feature Description Number of Units 5 to 10 self-contained rental units, each with a kitchen and bathroom. Zoning Generally zoned as multifamily residential or mixed-use, depending on the area. Financing Category Considered commercial real estate by most lenders (5+ units triggers commercial underwriting). Ownership Typically owned by small investors, partnerships, or LLCs. Management Can be owner-managed or managed by a third-party property manager. 4. Private or Bridge Loans Short-term, higher interest Used for rehabs, quick purchases, or properties that don’t qualify for traditional financing 📊 Why Investors Like 5–10 Unit Multifamily: Easier to manage than large apartment complexes More scalable than single-family rentals Still eligible for economies of scale (one roof, one lawn, multiple rents) Can often house hack (live in one unit, rent the others) Tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
By Didier Malagies July 14, 2025
📉 1. Borrowing Becomes Cheaper Mortgage rates tend to fall, making it easier for people to buy homes or refinance. Car loans, personal loans, and credit cards may also have lower interest rates. Businesses can borrow more cheaply to invest in growth. 💸 2. Consumer Spending Increases Since borrowing is cheaper and savings earn less interest, people are more likely to spend money rather than save it. This can boost demand for goods and services, helping to stimulate economic activity. 🏦 3. Savings Yield Less Savings accounts, CDs, and bonds typically offer lower returns. This can push investors to move money into riskier assets like stocks or real estate in search of higher returns. 📈 4. Stock Market Often Rallies Lower rates can mean higher corporate profits (due to cheaper debt) and increased consumer spending. Investors may shift funds from bonds into stocks, driving up equity prices. 💵 5. The U.S. Dollar May Weaken Lower interest rates can make the dollar less attractive to foreign investors, potentially weakening the currency. This can help U.S. exporters (as their goods become cheaper abroad) but may also increase the cost of imports. 🧩 6. Inflation Could Rise More spending and borrowing can increase demand, which may push prices up, leading to higher inflation—especially if supply can’t keep up. 🏚️ 7. Real Estate Activity Tends to Pick Up Lower mortgage rates can boost homebuying, refinancing, and construction, which helps stimulate related industries. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329 
Show More