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Fannie Mae cuts origination projection, forecasts recession in 2023 Fannie expects mortgage originations to total $2.8 trillion in 2022 and $2.4 trillion in 2023

Didier Malagies • Apr 21, 2022


Fannie Mae has lowered its mortgage origination forecasts for 2022 and 2023 due to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) aggressive inflation-fighting monetary policy and corresponding volatility in the mortgage market.

Fannie’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group dropped its projected single-family mortgage origination volume for 2022 from $3 trillion to $2.8 trillion. It also downsized the 2023 forecast from $2.7 trillion to $2.4 trillion. To compare, in 2021, the total was $4.5 trillion. 


Higher interest rates reduce borrowers’ appetite for refinancing, which is expected to decline from 58% of the mix in 2021 to 32% this year. In volumes, it represents $889 billion and $558 billion, respectively. Fannie Mae estimates that with rates at 5%, only 2.3% of all outstanding loan balances have a refinance rate incentive of at least 50 basis points.


Purchases will also decline in a more challenging landscape, from $1.93 trillion in 2022 to $1.85 trillion in 2023, both downward revisions from Fannie’s last month’s forecast.


Mortgage rates have ratcheted up dramatically over the past few months, and historically such large movements have ended with a housing slowdown. Consequently, we expect home sales, house prices, and mortgage volumes to cool over the next two years,” Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist, said in a statement. 


According to Duncan, households with a 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 3% are unlikely to give that up in favor of a rate closer to 5%, a “lock-in” effect that will weigh on home sales. 


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Fannie Mae expects a 7.4% decline in home sales for 2022, followed by a 9.7% reduction in 2023 – previously, it expected a 4.1% drop this year and 2.7% in the next year. The house prices growth forecast is at 10.8% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023. 


Regarding the overall economy, the ESR Group downgraded the 2022 GDP forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 2.1%, as record-high job openings are bringing near-term resilience to the economy, despite higher interest rates and the impacts of the war in Ukraine. 


But, for 2023, the scenario is more challenging. Fannie Mae changed its GDP forecast from a growth of 2.2% to a decline of 0.1%. According to the agency, a “soft-landing” – when inflation subsides without economic contraction – is possible, but historically such an outcome is an exception, not a norm. 

Fannie’s predictions show that, after peaking at 8.5% in March, inflation may be reduced to 5.5% in the fourth quarter of 2022. The unemployment rate is expected to reach 6% at some point in 2024, a change similar in magnitude to the 1990 and 2001 recessions.


“Data from U.S. economic history suggest that successfully negotiating a ‘soft landing’ requires monetary tightening to be pre-emptive rather than responsive,” Duncan said. “As such, we’ve updated our 2023 forecast to include a modest recession, but one that we do not expect to be similar in magnitude or duration to the recession of 2008.”


According to Fannie Mae, the mortgage credit quality is far superior in the current period, the residential real estate and the mortgage finance system are less leveraged now, and servicers are better equipped to deal with delinquencies. 





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By Didier Malagies 29 Apr, 2024
Depending on where you live there is an opportunity in certain areas that you can get $2,500 towards the closing costs. You also get a lower rate and monthly PMI. Programs open up to you where there is down payment assistance and also the 1% down program available. The Gov't is printing 1 trillion every 100 days, and the costs of everything are out of control. The time will come when they will be printing a trillion every 30 days. Credit cards, car loans, and student loans are at unprecedented levels is it time to refinance your home to save money and then do another refinance as a rate term when the pivot happens at some point in the future the cost of everything is going up and not stopping and you will see inflation continue to gain ground once again. Time to put the house in order with a refinance to consolidate debt. A phone call or an email away to go over your present situation and see what makes sense with the present home values tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
By Didier Malagies 22 Apr, 2024
Retirement at 65 has been a longstanding norm for U.S. workers, but older investors believe that not only is such an outcome unfeasible, but they’re likely to face more challenging retirements than their parents or grandparents. This is according to recently released survey results from Nationwide , with a respondent pool that included 518 financial advisers and professionals, as well as 2,346 investors ages 18 and older with investable assets of $10,000 or more. The survey follows other ongoing research into the baby boomer generation as it approaches “ Peak 65 .” The investors included a subset of 391 “pre-retirees“ between the ages of 55 and 65 who are not retired, along with subsets of 346 single women and 726 married women, Nationwide explained of its methodology. Seven in 10 of the pre-retiree investors said that the norm of retirement at age 65 “doesn’t apply to them,” while 67% of this cohort also believe that their own retirement challenges will outweigh those of preceding generations. Stress is changing the perceptions of retired life, especially for those who are closest to retirement, the results suggest. “Four in 10 (41%) pre-retirees said they would continue working in retirement to supplement their income out of necessity, and more than a quarter (27%) plan to live frugally to fund their retirement goals,” the results explained. “What’s more, pre-retirees say their plans to retire have changed over the last 12 months, with 22% expecting to retire later than planned.” Eric Henderson, president of Nationwide Annuity , said that previous generations who observed a “smooth transition” into retired life do not appear to be translating to the current generation making the same move. “Today’s investors are having a tougher time picturing that for themselves as they grapple with inflation and concerns about running out of money in retirement,” Henderson said in a statement. The result is that more pre-retirees are changing their spending habits and aiming to live more inexpensively. Forty-two percent of the surveyed pre-retiree cohort agreed with the idea that managing day-to-day expenses has grown more challenging due to rising costs of living, while 27% attributed inflation as the key reason they are saving less for retirement today. Fifty-seven percent of respondents said that inflation “poses the most immediate challenge to their retirement portfolio over the next 12 months,” while 41% said they were avoiding unnecessary expenses like vacations and leisure shopping. Confidence in the U.S. Social Security program has also fallen, the survey found. “Lack of confidence in the viability of Social Security upon retirement (38%) is a significant factor influencing pre-retirees to rethink or redefine their retirement planning strategies,” the results explained. “Over two-fifths (43%) are not counting on Social Security benefits as much as previously expected, and more than a quarter (27%) expect to receive less in benefits than previously anticipated.”  The survey was conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of Nationwide in January 2024.
By Didier Malagies 22 Apr, 2024
Depending on where you live there is an opportunity in certain areas that you can get $2,500 towards the closing costs. You also get a lower rate and monthly PMI. Programs open up to you where there is down payment assistance and also the 1% down program available. I am seeing more and more first-time home buyers coming out now and this is information you need to know. Yes, home prices are higher and rates as well. But if you have these programs available and the payment is affordable then the probability of refinancing down the road is in your favor and if inflation continues to go up so will home prices. Maybe it is the right time to buy a home now? Tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
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