Home Prices Suddenly See Biggest Gains in 2 Years
Didier Malagies • September 2, 2020
Home Prices Suddenly See Biggest Gains in 2 Years
Jordan Borchard posted in
Housing in Housing News
Home Prices Suddenly See Biggest Gains in 2 Years
Source: CNBC
Written by: Diana Olick
Exceptionally strong demand, historically low supply and record low mortgage rates are combining to fuel the fastest home price growth since 2018.
Nationally, home prices in July were 5.5% higher than in 2019. That is a marked increase from the 4.3% annual gain seen in June, according to CoreLogic.
Falling mortgage rates helped bolster the pent-up demand from spring, when home sales ground to a halt due to the start of the coronavirus pandemic. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed fell below 3% for the first time even in July, giving buyers additional purchasing power.
“Lower-priced homes are sought after and have had faster annual price growth than luxury homes,” said Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic’s chief economist. “First-time buyers and investors are actively seeking lower-priced homes, and that segment of the housing market is in particularly short supply.”
The inventory of homes priced under $100,000 was down 32% annually in July, according to the National Association of Realtors. Compare that with the supply of homes priced at $500,000 to $750,000, which was down just 9%.
Of course, all real estate is local, and especially so now as the pandemic is hitting some markets harder than others. Homebuying is gaining significant strength in more affordable suburban and rural areas as buyers seek more space for the new work-and-school-at-home economy. CoreLogic cites Nassau and Suffolk counties on Long Island, New York, where home prices jumped 4.3% annually in July, likely due in part to urban flight from New York City. Prices in the New York metropolitan area rose just 0.4%.
Home prices in San Francisco were also less than 1% higher annually, compared with the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area, which saw prices up over 5%. There is much less flight from the D.C. area than from San Francisco, as tech workers, who can now work from anywhere, leave the latter in search of more affordable homes.
Economists at CoreLogic predict that homes will stay positive in 2021, but that the gains will weaken, as the initial surge of pandemic buying wanes. Certain markets particularly hard hit by the pandemic could suffer the most. Las Vegas and Miami are notable examples because their economies rely heavily on tourism and entertainment.
There is also concern that as various mortgage bailout programs begin to expire, there will be a surge in sales of distressed homes. While the market will likely absorb these homes quickly, given the current housing shortage, the additional supply will take some of the heat out of home prices.
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After years of identifying the housing market as unhealthy — culminating in a savagely unhealthy housing market in early 2022 — I can confidently assert that the housing market in 2024 and 2025 is on better footing. This transformation sets an extremely positive foundation for what’s to come. Some recent headlines about housing suggest that demand is crashing. However, that’s not the case, as the data below will show. Today on CNBC , I discussed this very point: what is happening now is not only in line with my price forecasts for 2024 and 2025, but it’s why I am so happy to see inventory grow and price growth data cool down. What we saw in late 2020, all of 2021 and early 2022 was not sustainable and we needed higher mortgage rates to cool things down — hence why I was team higher rates early in 2021. The last two years have ushered in a healthier market for the future of existing home sales. Existing home sales Before the existing home sales report was released Thursday, I confidently predicted a month-to-month decline, while estimating the existing home sales print to be just a tad above 4 million. That’s precisely what occurred — no surprises there, as every month in 2025 has consistently exceeded 4 million. However, it’s important to note that our weekly pending home sales data has only recently begun to show growth compared to last year. We have an advantage over the data from the National Association of Realtors since our weekly pending home sales data is updated weekly, making their report somewhat outdated. The notable surprise for me in 2025 is the year-over-year growth we observe in the data, despite elevated mortgage rates. If mortgage rates were ranging between 6%-6.64%, I wouldn’t have been surprised at all because we are working from the lowest bar in sales ever. Purchase application data If someone had said the purchase application data would show positive trends both year to date and year over year by late April, even with mortgage rates not falling significantly below 6.64%, I would have found that hard to believe. Yet, here we are witnessing consistent year-over-year growth . Even with the recent rate spike, which has clearly cooled demand week to week, we are still positive. If mortgage rates can just trend down toward 6% with duration, sales are growing. Housing inventory and price growth While my forecast for national price growth in 2024 at 2.33% was too low and in 2025 at 1.77% may be too low again, it’s encouraging to see a slowdown in price growth, which I believe is a positive sign for the future. The increase in inventory is also promising and supports long-term stability in the housing market. We can anticipate that millions of people will continue to buy homes each year, and projections suggest that we’re on track for another nearly 5 million total home sales in 2025. As wages rise and households are formed, such as through marriage and bringing in dual incomes, this influx of inventory returning to normal levels provides an optimistic outlook. This trend in inventory data is truly heartening. Conclusion With all the data lines I added above, you can see why I have a renewed optimism about the housing market. If price growth significantly outpaced inflation and wages, and inventory wasn’t increasing, I’d be discussing a much different and more concerning state of affairs. Thankfully, that’s not the case. Historically, we’ve observed that when home sales dip due to higher rates, they may remain subdued for a while but ultimately rise again. This is common during recessions, as I discussed in this recent HousingWire Daily podcast . As you can see in the existing home sales data below, we had an epic crash in sales in 2022 but found a base to work from around 4 million. This trend has shaped the landscape of housing economics since post-WWII, reminding us that resilience and recovery are always within reach. 
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