Massive home price appreciation set to slow as sellers return

After years of identifying the housing market as unhealthy — culminating in a savagely unhealthy housing market in early 2022 — I can confidently assert that the housing market in 2024 and 2025 is on better footing. This transformation sets an extremely positive foundation for what’s to come. Some recent headlines about housing suggest that demand is crashing. However, that’s not the case, as the data below will show. Today on CNBC , I discussed this very point: what is happening now is not only in line with my price forecasts for 2024 and 2025, but it’s why I am so happy to see inventory grow and price growth data cool down. What we saw in late 2020, all of 2021 and early 2022 was not sustainable and we needed higher mortgage rates to cool things down — hence why I was team higher rates early in 2021. The last two years have ushered in a healthier market for the future of existing home sales. Existing home sales Before the existing home sales report was released Thursday, I confidently predicted a month-to-month decline, while estimating the existing home sales print to be just a tad above 4 million. That’s precisely what occurred — no surprises there, as every month in 2025 has consistently exceeded 4 million. However, it’s important to note that our weekly pending home sales data has only recently begun to show growth compared to last year. We have an advantage over the data from the National Association of Realtors since our weekly pending home sales data is updated weekly, making their report somewhat outdated. The notable surprise for me in 2025 is the year-over-year growth we observe in the data, despite elevated mortgage rates. If mortgage rates were ranging between 6%-6.64%, I wouldn’t have been surprised at all because we are working from the lowest bar in sales ever. Purchase application data If someone had said the purchase application data would show positive trends both year to date and year over year by late April, even with mortgage rates not falling significantly below 6.64%, I would have found that hard to believe. Yet, here we are witnessing consistent year-over-year growth . Even with the recent rate spike, which has clearly cooled demand week to week, we are still positive. If mortgage rates can just trend down toward 6% with duration, sales are growing. Housing inventory and price growth While my forecast for national price growth in 2024 at 2.33% was too low and in 2025 at 1.77% may be too low again, it’s encouraging to see a slowdown in price growth, which I believe is a positive sign for the future. The increase in inventory is also promising and supports long-term stability in the housing market. We can anticipate that millions of people will continue to buy homes each year, and projections suggest that we’re on track for another nearly 5 million total home sales in 2025. As wages rise and households are formed, such as through marriage and bringing in dual incomes, this influx of inventory returning to normal levels provides an optimistic outlook. This trend in inventory data is truly heartening. Conclusion With all the data lines I added above, you can see why I have a renewed optimism about the housing market. If price growth significantly outpaced inflation and wages, and inventory wasn’t increasing, I’d be discussing a much different and more concerning state of affairs. Thankfully, that’s not the case. Historically, we’ve observed that when home sales dip due to higher rates, they may remain subdued for a while but ultimately rise again. This is common during recessions, as I discussed in this recent HousingWire Daily podcast . As you can see in the existing home sales data below, we had an epic crash in sales in 2022 but found a base to work from around 4 million. This trend has shaped the landscape of housing economics since post-WWII, reminding us that resilience and recovery are always within reach. 

1. Cash-Out Refinance How it works: You replace your current mortgage with a new, larger loan and take the difference out in cash. Pros: Often lower interest rates compared to other methods. Longer repayment terms. Cons: Closing costs (typically 2–5% of the loan amount). Resets your loan term (could be 15, 20, or 30 years). Tougher underwriting for investment properties vs primary residences. 2. Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) How it works: You get a revolving line of credit based on your property’s equity. Pros: Flexibility — borrow what you need, when you need it. Pay interest only on what you draw. Cons: HELOCs for investment properties are harder to get and may have higher rates. Variable interest rates (payments can increase). 3. Home Equity Loan ("Second Mortgage") How it works: A lump-sum loan secured by your property's equity, separate from your existing mortgage. Pros: Fixed interest rates and predictable payments. Cons: Higher rates than primary mortgages. Separate loan payment on top of your existing mortgage. 4. Sell the Property How it works: You sell the investment property and realize your equity as cash. Pros: Immediate full access to equity. No debt obligation. Cons: Capital gains taxes may apply. You lose future appreciation and cash flow. 5. Portfolio Loan How it works: A loan based on a group (portfolio) of your properties' combined value and cash flow. Pros: Useful if you have multiple properties. Lenders may be more flexible on qualifications. Cons: Complex underwriting. Higher costs. 6. Private or Hard Money Loan How it works: Short-term, high-interest loan based on property value, not personal credit. Pros: Fast funding (days instead of weeks). Less strict underwriting. Cons: Very high interest rates (often 8%–15%+). Short loan terms (often 6–24 months). 7. Seller Financing (if you're buying another property) How it works: If you own a property free and clear, you could "sell" it and carry financing, creating cash flow and upfront cash through a down payment. Pros: Passive income from note payments. Cons: Risk if the buyer defaults. Key Factors to Think About: How quickly do you need the cash? How much do you want to borrow? How long do you want to be repaying it? How the new debt impacts your overall portfolio. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329