Mortgage applications dip as home prices climb Low inventory continues to drive home prices upwards

Didier Malagies • March 25, 2021

Mortgage applications decreased for the third straight week – this time down 2.5%, according to the latest report from the Mortgage Bankers Association.


Refinance activity dropped to its slowest pace since September 2020 – down a full 5% – with declines in both conventional and government applications, according to Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. He added that mortgage rates have moved higher in tandem with Treasury yields.


“Inadequate housing inventory continues to put upward pressure on home prices,” Kan said. “As both home-price growth and mortgage rates continue this upward trend, we may see affordability challenges become more severe if new and existing supply does not significantly pick up.”


The dip in applications is linked to broader trends in the housing market: more than a year of low inventory is forcing interested buyers to snag whatever they can get their hands on, even if it’s overpriced. That’s coupled with a rise in mortgage rates, too.


A recent Redfin study showed that cash is currently king, with buyers increasing their chance of landing that home they want by nearly 300% if they offer all-cash. For most people, though, that isn’t an option.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 3.36% last week, and the purchase index increased for the fourth consecutive week – up 3% . The purchase index was up 26% year-over-year, according to the MBA. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 60.9% of total applications, down from 62.9% the previous week.


The FHA share of total mortgage applications remained unchanged at 11.7% from the week prior. The VA share of total mortgage applications decreased to 9.8% from 10.3% the week prior.



Here is a more detailed breakdown of this week’s mortgage application data:

  • The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.36% from 3.28%
  • The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $548,250) increased to 3.4% from 3.34%
  • The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 3.35% from 3.25% — the third week in a row of increases
  • The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 2.72% from 2.67% – the second week in a row of increases
  • The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 2.79% from 2.82%



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✅ the principal you borrowed ✅ all interest paid over the years ❌ It does NOT include taxes, insurance, or HOA unless noted. Because longer terms spread payments out more slowly, they lower the monthly payment but massively increase total interest paid. Below is a simple example to show how total payments change by loan term. ✅ Example: $300,000 loan at 6% interest 15-Year Mortgage Monthly payment: ≈ $2,531 Total paid: ≈ $455,682 Total interest: ≈ $155,682 30-Year Mortgage Monthly payment: ≈ $1,799 Total paid: ≈ $647,514 Total interest: ≈ $347,514 40-Year Mortgage Monthly payment: ≈ $1,650 Total paid: ≈ $792,089 Total interest: ≈ $492,089 50-Year Mortgage Monthly payment: ≈ $1,595 Didier Malagies nmls212566 DDA Mortgage nmls32432 Total paid: ≈ $956,140 Total interest: ≈ $656,140 ✅ Summary: Total Payments by Loan Term Term Monthly Payment Total Paid Over Life Total Interest 15-Year ~$2,531 $455,682 $155,682 30-Year ~$1,799 $647,514 $347,514 40-Year ~$1,650 $792,089 $492,089 50-Year ~$1,595 $956,140 $656,140 ✅ Key Takeaway A longer mortgage = lower payment, but the total paid skyrockets because interest accrues for decades longer. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
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Here are the main types of events that typically cause the 10-year yield to drop: Economic slowdown or recession signs Weak GDP, rising unemployment, or falling consumer spending make investors expect lower future interest rates. Example: A bad jobs report or slowing manufacturing data often pushes yields lower. Federal Reserve rate cuts (or expectations of cuts) If the Fed signals or actually cuts rates, long-term yields like the 10-year typically decline. Markets anticipate lower inflation and slower growth ahead. Financial market stress or geopolitical tension During crises (wars, banking issues, political instability), investors seek safety in Treasuries — pushing prices up and yields down. Lower inflation or deflation data When inflation slows more than expected, the “real” return on Treasuries looks more attractive, bringing yields down. Dovish Fed comments or data suggesting easing ahead Even before actual rate cuts, if the Fed hints it might ease policy, yields often fall in anticipation. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
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