Buyers are overpaying, but are there signs of a bubble? February's numbers show the strongest purchase market since 2006

Didier Malagies • March 22, 2021

Home prices have skyrocketed in the past year, and data from Redfin backs up what buyers, sellers, and agents have known for months.



The national average of home prices rose 14.4% year-over-year to $336,200 in February – the largest increase since July 2013, according to the latest report from Redfin. Closed home sales were up 5% from a year earlier and pending sales rose 21%. In all, the seasonally-adjusted number of homes sold totaled 627,400 in February.


That’s with unprecedented winter storms hitting most of the South in February, too.

As proof of the impact of the country’s low inventory and high cost of building materials, new listings fell 16% – the second-largest decline on record since Redfin’s data began in 2012, only passed by the drop in April 2020.


Mortgage rates have also jumped to north of 3%; at its current pace, the Mortgage Bankers Association is forecasting rates will reach nearly 3.5% by the end of 2021. New home applications are down as well, as builders are still struggling with smaller-than-normal crews and expensive materials that are hard to procure. And even with March well underway, mortgage applications are still in decline.


With the new rules of Non-QM 2.0 now in play and an oncoming wave of potential new customers, do you have the tools in place to help you keep up, streamline efficiencies and grow your potential market share? Join leading industry experts for a 45-minute discussion on the market, challenges and opportunities.


The shortage of homes for sale is making homebuyer competition intense, according to Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. Approximately 36% of homes sold last month went above asking price, she said – the largest share on record.


“This is the strongest seller’s market since at least 2006,” Fairweather said. “Buyers outnumber sellers by such a huge margin that many homeowners are staying put because they know how hard it would be to find a place to move to. It seems like the only move-up buyers who are confident enough to list their homes are those who are relocating to a more affordable area where they’ll have an edge on the local competition.”


Fairweather insisted the housing market isn’t in a bubble, however, and expects demand to settle down as mortgage rates rise. But the continued vaccine rollout and stimulus money from President Joseph Biden’s American Rescue Plan could keep buyer demand high for a while longer.


“Yes, some buyers are overpaying for homes, particularly those who are moving to affordable destinations and paying well over asking prices to win homes in bidding wars, but these buyers are often covering any shortfall in the bank’s appraisal amount and locking in low monthly mortgage payments that they can easily afford,” Fairweather said.


Median sale prices also increased from a year earlier in all but one of the 85 largest metro areas Redfin tracks. The only place prices didn’t increase was San Francisco, where they were flat from a year ago. The largest price increases were in Bridgeport, CT (+31%), New Haven, CT (+31%) and Camden, NJ (+24%).

Austin (-15%), McAllen, Texas (-13%) and Salt Lake City (-13%) saw the largest decline in home sales, but those drops were likely due to escrow delays from the intense February winter storms.




Start Your Loan with DDA today
Your local Mortgage Broker

Mortgage Broker Largo
See our Reviews

Looking for more details? Listen to our extended podcast! 

Check out our other helpful videos to learn more about credit and residential mortgages.

By Didier Malagies September 24, 2025
Speed & Efficiency AI Underwriting: Processes applications in seconds to minutes. 1.Can instantly pull data from multiple sources (credit reports, bank statements, income verification, property valuations, etc.). Ideal for high-volume, standardized cases. Human Underwriter: Takes hours to days, depending on complexity. Manually reviews documents, contacts third parties, and applies professional judgment. Slower, especially for complex or edge cases. 2. Data Handling AI: Uses algorithms and machine learning to analyze massive datasets. Can detect patterns humans might miss (e.g., spending behavior, alternative data like utility payments, even digital footprints in some markets). Human: Relies on traditional documentation (pay stubs, tax returns, appraisals). Limited by human bandwidth—can’t process as much raw data at once. 3. Consistency & Bias AI: Decisions are consistent with its rules and training data. However, if the data it’s trained on is biased, the system can replicate or even amplify those biases. Human: Brings subjective judgment. Can weigh special circumstances that don’t fit a neat rule. Risk of inconsistency—two underwriters might interpret the same file differently. May have unconscious bias, but also flexibility to override rigid criteria. 4. Risk Assessment AI: Excels at quantifiable risks (credit scores, loan-to-value ratios, historical claim data). Weak at unstructured or nuanced factors (e.g., a borrower with an unusual income stream, or a claim with unclear circumstances). Human: Strong at contextual judgment—understanding unique borrower situations, exceptions, or “gray areas.” Can pick up on red flags that an algorithm might miss (e.g., forged documents, conflicting information). 5. Regulation & Accountability AI: Regulators are still catching up. Requires transparency in decision-making (explainable AI). Hard to appeal an AI decision if it can’t explain its reasoning clearly. Human: Provides a clear chain of accountability—borrower can request explanations or escalate. Easier for compliance teams to audit decision-making. 6. Cost & Scalability AI: Scales cheaply—one system can process thousands of applications simultaneously. Lower ongoing labor costs once implemented. Human: Labor-intensive, costs grow with volume. Better suited for complex, high-value, or unusual cases rather than mass processing. ✅ Bottom line: AI underwriting is best for speed, scale, and straightforward cases. Human underwriters are best for nuanced judgment, exceptions, and handling edge cases. Most modern institutions use a hybrid model: AI handles the bulk of simple files, while humans step in for complex or flagged cases. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
By Didier Malagies September 17, 2025
A new survey from Clever Real Estate shows that 61% of baby boomer homeowners say they “never” plan to sell their homes, a jump of 7 percentage points from 2024. The main reason? More than half want to age in place. That’s a big shift. Baby boomers now make up the largest share of U.S. homeowners, and if more than 6 in 10 say they’ll “never” sell, that has ripple effects: Inventory squeeze : With fewer boomers putting homes on the market, younger buyers have less supply to choose from, which can keep prices elevated. Aging in place trend : The desire to stay put often means investing in accessibility upgrades—things like stair lifts, walk-in showers, and smart home tech for safety. Generational divide : Millennials and Gen Z face higher borrowing costs and limited starter-home availability, while boomers are holding onto larger family homes longer. Long-term planning : Some experts note that many of these homes will eventually transfer through inheritance rather than sales, changing how housing stock re-enters the market. Didier Malagies nmls212566 DDA Mortgage nmls324329
By Didier Malagies September 10, 2025
Excited to share a major update that will make the homebuying process more secure and less stressful. President Donald Trump recently signed the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act of 2025 into law. This bill is a significant victory for the real estate industry, as it directly addresses the problem of unwanted calls, texts, and emails that often flood clients upon mortgage application. What's Changing? For years, many borrowers have experienced a barrage of unsolicited contact from different lenders immediately after their mortgage application. This happens because of "trigger leads"—a process where credit reporting agencies sell information to other companies once a credit inquiry is made. Effective March 5, 2026, this new law will put a stop to this practice. It will severely limit who can receive client contact information, ensuring client privacy is protected. A credit reporting agency will only be able to share trigger lead information with a third party if: • Clients explicitly consent to the solicitations. • The third party has an existing business relationship. This change means a more efficient, respectful, and responsible homebuying journey. We are committed to a seamless process and will keep you informed of any further developments as the effective date approaches. In the meantime, you can use the information below to inform clients how to proactively protect themselves from unwanted solicitations.  Opting Out: • OptOutPrescreen.com: You can opt out of trigger leads through the official opt-out service, OptOutPrescreen.com. • Do Not Call Registry: You can also register your phone number with the National Do Not Call Registry to reduce unsolicited calls. • DMA.choice.org: For mail solicitations, you can register with DMA.choice.org to reduce promotional mail. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
Show More