Pending Home Sales fell in September, but annual gain is the important metric

Didier Malagies • October 29, 2020

Pending sales fell in September, but annual gain is the important metric.


 Today the National Association of Realtors reported pending home sales are up 20.5% year over year — and that is the only headline that you should care about.


This is one more data point showing that housing data has gone wild to the upside, so we should expect some downward moderation in the month-to-month data. Similarly, the recent Census/HUD report on new home sales showed they were up 32.1% year over year, whereas the monthly numbers showed a decline of 3.5% from August to September. I expected the negative revisions in the monthly numbers to be even larger, so these numbers may be revised lower yet again. 


Month-to-month housing data can move up and down, but the trend is what matters most. For this reason, I recommend just focusing on the year-over-year data. Focusing on the year-over-year data with home sales and especially with purchase applications is the key to understanding the market trends.

When reading all the housing market chatter out there, it is wise to keep in mind that our extreme housing bears are fragile people. When they see a move lower in the data they think this is 2008 all over again, but that is just not happening this year. 


After February’s existing home sales report, I would have expected the existing home sales data to have ended the year in the range of 5,710,000 to 5,840,000. We have a ways to go to get into that ballpark with only three reports left in the year. If we don’t reach those numbers, then COVID-19 did take some demand off the market in the existing home sales data.

Purchase application data, which looks out 30-90 days, has been averaging over 20% year over year for 23 straight weeks. The last four weeks of growth on a year-over-year basis look like this:
+24%
+26%
+24%
+21% 

If you were looking for a W in housing, your hopes died as of May of 2020. It has been all V-territory since then. Please don’t make the rookie mistake of moderation equally a W.


Remember, that in the previous expansion we have had our best existing home sales print in the fall and winter, not the spring or summer so we are pushing our way to achieve a positive year in existing home sales. If we don’t reach 5,710,000 in total existing-home sales then we can blame COVID-19 for the hit in demand.



While new home sales are up 16.9% year to date, the existing home sales market is still down 0.2%. Still, it’s going to be a 6 million+ total home sales year — even with the global pandemic. This makes the U.S. housing market the most outperforming economic sector in the world.

Leave a comment




Start Your Loan with DDA today
Your local Mortgage Broker

Mortgage Broker Largo
See our Reviews

Looking for more details? Listen to our extended podcast! 

Check out our other helpful videos to learn more about credit and residential mortgages.

Finally, putting a stop on the trigger list

By Didier Malagies • September 10, 2025
Excited to share a major update that will make the homebuying process more secure and less stressful. President Donald Trump recently signed the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act of 2025 into law. This bill is a significant victory for the real estate industry, as it directly addresses the problem of unwanted calls, texts, and emails that often flood clients upon mortgage application. What's Changing? For years, many borrowers have experienced a barrage of unsolicited contact from different lenders immediately after their mortgage application. This happens because of "trigger leads"—a process where credit reporting agencies sell information to other companies once a credit inquiry is made. Effective March 5, 2026, this new law will put a stop to this practice. It will severely limit who can receive client contact information, ensuring client privacy is protected. A credit reporting agency will only be able to share trigger lead information with a third party if: • Clients explicitly consent to the solicitations. • The third party has an existing business relationship. This change means a more efficient, respectful, and responsible homebuying journey. We are committed to a seamless process and will keep you informed of any further developments as the effective date approaches. In the meantime, you can use the information below to inform clients how to proactively protect themselves from unwanted solicitations.  Opting Out: • OptOutPrescreen.com: You can opt out of trigger leads through the official opt-out service, OptOutPrescreen.com. • Do Not Call Registry: You can also register your phone number with the National Do Not Call Registry to reduce unsolicited calls. • DMA.choice.org: For mail solicitations, you can register with DMA.choice.org to reduce promotional mail. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329

Finally putting a stop to the Trigger leads from happening

By Didier Malagies • September 10, 2025
We're excited to share a major update that will make the homebuying process more secure and less stressful. President Donald Trump recently signed the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act of 2025 into law. This bill is a significant victory for the real estate industry, as it directly addresses the problem of unwanted calls, texts, and emails that often flood clients upon mortgage application. What's Changing? For years, many borrowers have experienced a barrage of unsolicited contact from different lenders immediately after their mortgage application. This happens because of "trigger leads"—a process where credit reporting agencies sell information to other companies once a credit inquiry is made. Effective March 5, 2026, this new law will put a stop to this practice. It will severely limit who can receive client contact information, ensuring client privacy is protected. A credit reporting agency will only be able to share trigger lead information with a third party if: • Clients explicitly consent to the solicitations. • The third party has an existing business relationship. This change means a more efficient, respectful, and responsible homebuying journey. We are committed to a seamless process and will keep you informed of any further developments as the effective date approaches. In the meantime, you can use the information below to inform clients how to proactively protect themselves from unwanted solicitations. Opting Out: • OptOutPrescreen.com: You can opt out of trigger leads through the official opt-out service, OptOutPrescreen.com. • Do Not Call Registry: You can also register your phone number with the National Do Not Call Registry to reduce unsolicited calls. • DMA.choice.org: For mail solicitations, you can register with DMA.choice.org to reduce promotional mail. Didier Malagies nmls212566 DDA Mortgage nmls324329 

When is the right time to refinance your mortgage

By Didier Malagies • September 8, 2025
Good question — refinancing can be a smart move, but the timing really matters. The "right time" to refinance your mortgage depends on a mix of personal and market factors. Here are the main ones to weigh: 1. Interest Rates If current mortgage rates are at least 2% lower than your existing rate, refinancing could save you money. Example: Dropping from 7% to 6% on a $300,000 loan can save hundreds per month. 2. Loan Term Goals Switching from a 30-year to a 15-year mortgage can help you pay off your home faster (though monthly payments are higher). Extending your term may lower your monthly payment but increase total interest paid. 3. Equity in Your Home Lenders usually want you to have at least 20% equity for the best rates and to avoid private mortgage insurance (PMI). If your home’s value has increased, refinancing can help eliminate PMI. 4. Credit Score If your credit score has improved since you got your mortgage, you may now qualify for much better rates. 5. Life Situation Planning to stay in the home at least 3–5 years? That’s often how long it takes to “break even” on refinance closing costs. If you might sell sooner, refinancing may not make sense. 6. Debt or Cash Needs A cash-out refinance can help if you want to consolidate higher-interest debt, fund renovations, or free up cash — but it raises your loan balance. ✅ Rule of Thumb: Refinance if you can lower your rate, shorten your term, or eliminate PMI, and you’ll stay in the home long enough to recover the costs. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
Show More